Hill Returns To The Big Leagues

Rich Hill has made a couple of starts after being brought off the DL, and his results have been pretty good. A 1-0 record, with a 3.18 ERA in 11.1 IP, 10 H, 6 BB, 1 HR, 12 K. His FIP is a solid 3.78 and his stats make it seem like he's a lot more like the 2007 version (3.92 ERA with 183 K's in 195 IP) than the 2008 version (4.12 ERA but 18 walks in 19.2 IP). Does this mean the O's have themselves a #3 starter?

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(These are largely taken from write-ups done after each of Hill's starts.)

From his first start against the Royals (courtesy of FanGrpahs):


Hill pretty much just stuck with the fastball and curveball, as he has in the past. That one red dot - the slider - was I believe the pitch he dropped down on to strike Jacobs out (the release point confirmed that he really did drop down on that one pitch). His fastball doesn't tail in on lefties much at all, but the curveball has some big-time movement and a 17 mph difference in average velocity from the heater. If he could work his 81 mph change-up in more - he only threw a handful - then that might make both the fastball and the curve more effective.

From his second start against the Nationals (also courtesy of FanGrpahs):


I found it amusing that Hill dropped down again, once, to throw that "slider". It was to Adam Dunn, who fouled it off before drawing a walk. While it looks like his movement changed from his last start, the uniform difference of everything moving slightly to the left leads me to believe that it's an issue with the Pitch/FX system calibration on one of the two stadiums.

All six of his K's came on the curveball, with two looking and four swinging. Hill is still having a ton of problems with his fastball command, as only 37% of his pitches (overall) have been in the strike-zone (as opposed to around 50% as the league average) and lot of that is his fastball. The Pitch/FX didn't catch every pitch in his last start - and it's not exact - but it looks like he threw around a third of his fastballs in the strike zone and around 40% of his curveballs. The curve is a great pitch for him, but it will lose a lot of it's effectiveness if opposing batters know that Hill can't get his fastball over.

Statistically speaking, start #2 (5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 K) looked a lot like start #1 (5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K). The walks were up partly as a result of a worse ball-strike ratio (46-53 after 34-54), but he also got more groundballs which allowed him to erase a runner via a double play.

I'm not a scout, but it seems like Hill still has some less than optimal things going on with his mechanics - possibly including that shoulder tilt (which may or may not be an actual problem), crooking his wrist as he takes the ball back out of his glove, and what appears to be a lag in his arm as he rotated his body towards the plate. Couldn't find any slowed down video to check, so I would love to hear what others have to say on the matter.

Despite his solid first couple of starts, Hill still has a lot to work on before he can be counted on as a long-term contributor to the rotation.

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Brad Bergesen at Toronto (Third Major League Start -- 5/2/2009)

Pitch Chart #3 for Bradley Bergesen. Let's see if he can start flashing that change-up and and locate his fastballs...

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Toronto
Scutaro, SS, .280
Hill, 2B, .376
Rios, RF, .248
Wells, CF, .282
Lind, DH, .320
Bautista, 3B, .310
Overbay, 1B, .250
Chavez, C, .273
Snider, LF, .258


First Inning
Scutaro
P1 - 2S, low, ball
P2 - 2S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, low-in, strike (looking)
P4 - 2S, middle-out, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, low, 6-3

Hill
P1 - 2S, low, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, foul (1B)
P3 - 2S, out, 5-3

Rios
P1 - 2S, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, in, 5-3

Inning Summary: All 2-seamers and three ground balls. Good first inning and good location on his pitches. Toronto was a little eager at the plate, which Bergesen exploited to the tune of a 10-pitch inning.

Inning: 10 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 10 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER

Second Inning
Wells
P1 - SL, in, 2B (CF, E9)

Lind
P1 - 2S, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low-out, ball (looked squeezed)
P4 - 2S, low, 4-3

Bautista
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P4 - SL, low-out, ball
P5 - 2S, low, foul (1B)
P6 - 2S, up, 1B (RF)

Overbay
P1 - 2S, out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball (looked squeezed, again; not getting that pitch)
P3 - 2S, in, ball
P4 - 2S, low-in, ball

Chavez
P1 - 2S, low-in, strike (looked like the same spot called balls for lefties)
P2 - CH, low-out, foul (1B)
P3 - 2S, low-in, foul (back)
P4 - SL, low-out, ball (good waste)
P5 - 2S, middle, 1B (RF)

Snider
P1 - SL, out, ball
P2 - 2S, out, ball
P3 - 2S, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, up-in, strike (looking; good location)
P5 - 2S, low-out, 4-6

Scutaro
P1 - SL, out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, 1B (LF; not enough velo differential but good spot and depth)

Hill
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low-out, ball (good approach, just not executing)
P4 - 2S, low-in, foul (3B)
P5 - SL, low-out, 6-3

Inning Summary: I actually like Bergesen's approach today, but he isn't executing on his pitches. Too many fastballs catching the fat 1/3 of the plate and getting behind too often. It's nice to see the slider, but he has to set it up a little better, since the depth and bite are average. Better execution and he should see more success. His quick first inning is a big bonus, as he threw a lot of pitches in inning two.

Inning: 32 pitches/16 strikes, 1 BB, 4 H, 0 SO, 3 ER
Total: 42 pitcher/23 strikes, 1 BB, 4 H, 0 SO, 3 ER

Third Inning
Rios
P1 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low, 1B (CF)

Wells
P1 - 2S, middle, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P3 - 2S, middle, 1B (LF; bad spot up 0-2)

Lind
P1 - 2S, up-out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, ball
P3 - 2S, out, ball
P4 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P5 - 2S, low, 3-6-3

Bautista
P1 - 2S, in, ball
P2 - SL, low-out, ball (target low-in)
P3 - 2S, low-in, ball (fifth 3-0 count!)
P4 - 2S, low-out, ball

Overbay
P1 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P3 - 2S, up-out, foul tip (caught)

Inning Summary: Bergesen just isn't commanding his stuff. Again, falling behind and missing his spots with his fastball (and slider). Looks like "one of those days" where his pitches aren't there for him. It's worth noting how he handles it -- which hasn't been bad -- but there isn't enough margin in his pure stuff for it to be really effective when it isn't on. At least his 2-seamer gives him the opportunity to get out of trouble via the double-play.

Inning: 17 pitches/10 strikes, 1 BB, 2 H, 1 SO, 0 ER
Total: 59 pitches/33 strikes, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER

Fourth Inning
Chavez
P1 - strike (missed pitch)
P2 - SL, in, ball
P3 - 2S, low-in, ball
P4 - 4S, up-in, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, middle, 4-3

Snider
P1 - 4S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - CH, middle, F8 (good velo differential allowed him to miss up a bit)

Scutaro
P1 - SL, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low, 1-3

Inning Summary: Very good inning. Still isn't really hitting his spots, but he mixed his pitches well. He kept his pitch count down and should get through the fifth -- an accomplishment given his third inning.

Inning: 10 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 69 pitches/40 strikes, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER

Fifth Inning
Hill
P1 - SL, in, ball
P2 - 2S, in, ball
P3 - 4S, low, F8

Rios
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - SL, low-out, ball (missed badly)
P3 - 2S, low-in, strike (looking)
P4 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P5 - SL, low-out, ball
P6 - SL, in, F9

Wells
P1 - 2S, middle, foul (1B)
P2 - SL, low, foul (back)
P3 - 4S, out, 1-3

Inning Summary: Another solid inning, and another inning where Bergesen isn't really executing, but is mixing well. Fell behind to first two hitters, again (both 2-0). Another relatively short inning might by him a sixth trip to the mound. We'll see...

Inning: 12 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 81 pitches/47 strikes, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER

Sixth Inning
Lind
P1 - 2S, out, ball
P2 - SL, out, ball (spinner, maybe CH?)
P3 - 2S, low-in, strike
P4 - SL, out, ball
P5 - 2S, out, strike (looking; got some help)
P6 - 2S, low-in, ball

Bautista
P1 - 2S, no location (wide shot), F8

Overbay
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking; wasn't getting that earlier)
P2 - CH, low-out, 6-3

Inning Summary: A third straight solid inning. Bergesen still wasn't sharp with his stuff, but it looks like he's managing an off day as well as can be expected. He isn't hanging his stuff over the plate any more, and he's putting himself in position to get soft contact, even if his pitches aren't as crisp as he'd like. 7th?

Inning: 9 pitches/5 strikes, 1 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 90 pitches/52 strikes, 3 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER

Seventh Inning - Bergesen pulled; Baez in

Game Summery: Bergesen did not command his stuff and his slider was less consistent than usual. Still, he managed to battle through, allowing a respectable 3 earned runs over six innings pitched. He did a better job mixing in his change-up (I counted five) and generally had a better pitch-mix throughout the game. I'd like to see him keep this approach through his next start and hopefully just execute his pitches a little better. Could have been much worse; hats off to Bergesen for battling through.

Final Line: 6 IP, 3 BB, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 SO
90 pitches/52 strikes

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Chris Tillman Start (5/1/2009 at Scranton)

Taking a look at Tillman against AAA Yankees. Observations on positional prospects will be written up separately. Pitch charting follows...

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Yankees Lineup:
Nunez, SS
Rodriguez, DH
Linden, LF
S. Duncan, RF
Miranda, 1B
Jackson, CF
E. Duncan, 3B
Malec, 2B
Plittere, C

First Inning
Nunez, SS
P1 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, low-in, foul tip (caught)

Rodriguez, DH
P1 - FB, out, ball (good run)
P2 - FB, low-in, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P5 - FB, up-in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-out, ball

Linden, LF
P1 - FB, low-in, ball (good pick by Wieters)
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, low-out, 4-6

S. Duncan
P1 - FB, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, up-in, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, up-out, 2B (CF)

Miranda
P1 - CB, up-out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; nice depth on pitch and solid arm speed)
P3 - FB, up-in, ball
P4 - CH, out, F8

Inning Summary: Tillman worked to establish his fastball, struggling a bit with command. He was around his spots but not necessarily hitting them. One thing that was nice was his use of secondary stuff against Miranda, setting-up his second change-up with a solid high fastball. Stadium gun has him in the 90-92 range with his fastball.

20 pitches/13 strikes, 1BB, 1 SO, 1 H, 1 ER

Second Inning
Jackson
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, out, ball (very good depth)
P3 - FB, low, foul (RF)
P4 - FB, in, foul (1B)
P5 - FB, low-in, F9

E. Duncan
P1 - CB, out, ball (good shape/depth, again)
P2 - FB, low, foul (back)
P3 - CB, low, strike (looking; plus depth and bite)
P4 - CH, in, foul (back)
P5 - FB, low-out, foul (3B)
P6 - FB, out, foul (back)
P7 - CB, in, foul (1B)
P8 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; good depth and arm speed)

Malec
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, in, ball
P3 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, out, ball (good waste and change where Malec's looking)
P5 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P6 - CB, up-in, ball
P7 - FB, low-in, L4 (Malec squared-up but right at 4)

Inning Summary: Much better mix of secondary stuff. Tillman is snapping off a plus CB bordering on plus-plus, getting very good depth and hard bite. A couple were a little soft (shape wasn't as tight) but overall the pitch looks good. His changeup has some nice depth and looks like it could definitely be an average to above-average pitch if he keeps working. I hope to see him pitch off his curve a bit the second time through the order.

Inning: 20 pitches/15 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 40 pitches/28 strikes, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1 H, 1 ER

Third Inning
Pilittere
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, up, 1B (CF)

Nunez
P1 - FB, middle, foul (RF)
P2 - FB, low-in, F3 (foul)

Rodriguez
P1 - CB, low-out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, 4-6

Linden
P1 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P2 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, foul (LF; seems like a good spot for offspeed)
P5 - CB, out, strike (looking)

Inning Summary: Tillman looked pretty comfortable and had his most economical inning. I'd like to see the change-up more, if only because it's supposedly something he's to be working on and has looked pretty good the handful of times he's used it tonight. Overall, solid inning and much needed to keep the pitch count down a bit.

Inning: 12 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, 1 H, O ER
Total: 52 pitches/37 strikes, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2 H, 1 ER

Fourth Inning
S. Duncan
P1 - FB, low, ball (bounced in -- hey, it's been a long wait)
P2 - FB, out, ball
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike
P5 - FB, in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-in, ball

Mendoza (PH for Miranda)
P1 - FB, out, ball
[Wieters/Tillman conference]
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, out, strike (looking; framed)
P4 - CB, low, strike (looking; snapped a good one)

Jackson
P1 - CB, low-out, ball (softer shape, came around it a bit)
P2 - FB, in, foul (back)
P3 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P4 - FB, low-out, ball
P5 - FB, in, 1B (RF; not a bad pitch but Jackson stayed inside of it)

E. Duncan
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, low, F7 (nice tracking by Reimold, back and to the line)

Malec
P1 - FB, up, ball (good to see him elevate it to start the AB)
P2 - FB, out, 2B (LF; belt-high and over the outer-half; missed inside target)

[Mike Griffin to mound w/Wieters and Tillman]

Pilittere
P1 - FB, up-in, F7

Inning Summary: I know this is about Tillman, but Wieters is really a solid receiver. He's quiet behind the plate and really absorbs the ball well -- the third pitch to Mendoza looked about three inches out, but Wieters took it in with minimal movement in framing and no movement at all in his body. Back to Tillman, it's hard to judge to harshly after the long layover in the top half of the inning, but he didn't look sharp. He wasn't hitting his spots and ended up around the belt way too often. Still would like to see him pitch off the curve a little more to change the hitter's eye-level, and of course the change-up would be nice.

Inning: 21 pitches/11 strikes, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 H, 2 ER
Total: 73 pitches, 48 strikez, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4 H, 3 ER

Fifth Inning
Nunez
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P3 - CB, up-in, strike (looking; great bite)
P4 - FB, out, 4-3

Rodriguez
P1 - CB, out, ball
P2 - FB, out, strike (swinging; way late, good job pitching off CB!)
P3 - CB, low, strike (swinging)
P4 - CH, low, strike (swinging; excellent pitch sequence had Rodriguez looking FB on P4)

Linden
P1 - CB, low-out, strike (looking; is he reading this? Again, way to pitch off the CB!)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging; again way behind after CB set-up)
P3 - CB, low-in, strike (swinging)

Inning Summary: Outstanding inning. Great job pitching off the secondary stuff and keeping the hitters guessing after being forced to the FB the previous inning. Should earn another trip to the mound in the sixth -- it'd be nice to see him get through six after laboring a bit with his pitch count early.

Inning: 11 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 2 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 84 pitches/57 strikes, 2 BB, 6 SO, 4 H, 3 ER

Tillman pulled; Albers in

Game Summary: Tillman put together a nice little start after showing some inconsistent command early. His last inning was by far his best, and it would have been nice to see him out for one more (particularly to face Duncan and Jackson again). It's clear what Tillman needs to continue to work on -- command in the zone, curveball command and using his changeup. He'll also need to build up some more in-game endurance, though some of that will come as he continues to fill out and build his overall durability. His curveball flashed plus-plus today, though it generally sat around plus, with average command. His change-up was a very good pitch the few times he threw it. Hopefully he'll continue to integrate it into his arsenal. Another nice start; still not Major League ready, but he's clearly working his way there.

Final Line : 5 IP, 2 BB, 4 H, 6 SO, 3 ER, 84 pitches/57 strikes

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Zaun is Unlucky?

From Roch Kubatko's blog:

Trembley noted that Zaun has hit "in some tough luck."

"I think for a guy who has played as long as Zaun has, you've got to look at the track record and see what he is, and that's basically a .250 hitter, and I think that's what he would be," Trembley said.

Is Dave Trembley correct in his assessment of Gregg Zaun this season?

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A quick way to find out is PrOPS.

Zaun's Actual Line: .111/.238/.185
Zaun's PrOPS Line: .241/.347/.303

It does appear that Zaun has been unlucky early this season. And if you take his expected line through PrOPS, he is much closer to the .250 hitter that Dave Trembley is expecting.

So should Chad Moeller get more playing time at this point?

Moeller's Actual Line: .250/.318/.450
Moeller's PrOPS Line: .316/.373/.538

Probably. Based on Moeller's hot bat and Zaun's cold one it probably wouldn't hurt things to split the time equally at least.



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Is there any room for Pie in Left Field?

We are probably painfully aware at this point that Nolan Reimold is beating up on pitchers in AAA. This has included two launched balls off of David Price, the esteemed No. 2 in BA's top prospects. He is batting 417/486/750 and is on pace to slug 50 home runs in a full season of AAA. His MLE OPS is 1027. This makes it difficult on Felix Pie. So far he has not performed with a line of 167/259/229. That is bad. Added to this, part of his charm was bringing above average defense to left field. He has just recently achieved average defensive value and it is arguable whether he will advance beyond that.

Now . . . your head might explode here. Pie has been unlucky. More after the jump.


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There are some basic rules of thumb you can apply to batted ball data. You look at a line and you will find that 0% of infield flies result in a hit, 22% of fly balls land for a hit, 28% of groundballs find holes through the infield, and 74% of line drives find a home in the outfield grass. Now, Felix has registered 2 infield flies, 13 fly balls, 12 grounders, and 8 line drives.

His hit rate so far has been 0% for infield flies, 15% for flies, 0% for ground balls, and 75% for line drives. See something off here? None of his grounders have found holes. He should have 4 ground ball hits. This would raise his batting average to .250 . . . his OBP to .327 . . . his slugging to .313. His OPS would be a whopping 640 as opposed to 488. Yeah, that is still pretty bad, but not as bad as we thought. Well, unless someone can come up with a good idea why his grounders do not make it through the infield? A line drive hitter typically hits hard grounders.

So, how much more rope do you all think he should have?





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Brad Bergesen: Second Start (April 26, 2009)

Charting Brad's second start -- this time against a tough Texas lineup. Let's see if he utilizes his slider and his changeup a little more effectively...

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First Inning
Kinsler
P1 - 2S, inside, long foul LF line
P2 - SL, outside, soft foul back
P3 - SL, low-outside, strike (swing, Kinsler fooled badly)

Murphy
P1 - 4S, low-out, strike, looking
P2 - 2S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, outside, ball
P4 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P5 - SL, low-in, ball (great location)
P6 - 2S, low-outside, foul back
P7 - 2S, outside, foul back
P8 - SL, low-in, foul soft back (needed a little more in, but good spot)
P9 - 2S, low, 4-3 (soft grounder, rolled over)

Young
P1 - SL, low, foul back
P2 - 2S, up-in, foul back
P3 - SL, low, strike (swinging)

Inning Summary: Very strong first inning. Bergesen did a nice job of setting-up his slider and getting good placement with his fastball. It looks like his 2S and SL are tough to differentiate out of his hand and arm slot, which should help both play up. Kinsler was looking FB and just missed a homer on the first pitch (Bergesen leaving it a bit up from the target. Overall, a strong start.

Second Inning
Blalock
P1 - 4S, inside, strike (looking)
P2 - CH, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - SL, low-in, ball
P4 - SL, low-out, F8 (end of the bat, reaching)

Byrd
P1 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, foul (3B side)
P3 - SL, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, inside, ball
P5 - SL, outside, ball
P6 - 2S, up-in, 2B (not a bad spot, Byrd just stayed inside of it and dumped it down the line)

Cruz
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low-out, foul
P4 - SL, low-out, strike (swinging; good tilt)

Davis
P1 - SL, low, ball
P2 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P3 - SL, low, HR (straight away CF; SL was a spinner that caught too much of the plate)

Saltalamacchia
P1 - SL, low-in, ball
P2 - 2S, in, foul back
P3 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P4 - SL, low-in, 1B (RF corner; again, SL spinning a bit and catching too much of the plate)

Andrus
P1 - SL, out, strike (swinging -- camera late coming back))
P2 - SL, in, foul back (camera late again)
P3 - 2S, middle, F9 (hit hard to right/center gap)


Inning Summary: 24 pich inning, 39 total. Bergesen was effective when he was hitting his spots, and ineffective when he wasn't. As we touched on in his first start, his pure stuff doesn't allow him to be imprecise. I'd like to see him mix in some more changeups the second time through the order -- I may have missed one or two due to the camera being late getting back to the pitch.

Third Inning
Kinsler
P1 - SL, middle, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, foul (back)
P3 - 4S, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, middle, 4-3

Murphy
P1 - 2S, low, ball
P2 - 4S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, low, foul (1B)
P4 - 2S, out, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, out, ball
P6 - 4S, in, ball

Young
P1 - SL, low, ball
P2 - 2S, up, foul (back)
P3 - SL, low, E6

Blalock
P1 - 2S, outside, ball
P2 - 2S, outside, ball (not finishing; aiming outside)
P3 - 2S, low-out, 3-6

Byrd
P1 - 2S, inside, foul (back)
P2 - 2S, outside, 5-4

Inning Summary: Better inning for Bergesen, though he went back to relying primarily on his 2S to try and induce groundballs. Again, I'd like to see the change mixed in a bit. He doesn't look particularly confident in his slider today, so something to change pace would be good. Also, while he needs to work down to be successful, it would be good to change the hitter's eye-level and throw a 4S up a couple of times when he's ahead.

Fourth Inning
Cruz (I'd like to see him work in with the 2S)
P1 - SL, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - 4S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, out, 4-3 (soft groundball; did a good job working inside-out to get the roll-over)

Davis
P1 - 4S, low-in, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low, foul (back)
P4 - 2S, out, F7

Saltalamacchia (I'd like to see him work down-out with the CH)
P1 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, single (CF)

Andrus
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-in, foul (3B)
P3 - 2S, low-in, foul (back; 4S up-in would be nice)
P4 - 2S, in, foul (3B; SL in would be nice)
P5 - SL, low-out, ball
P6 - 4S, low-in, foul
P7 - 4S, up, single (CF; caught way too much of plate)

Kinsler
P1 - 2S, in, 5-4

Inning Summary: Bergy didn't look like he wanted to throw anything off-speed to Davis. Fortunately, he kept the ball down and got soft contact. It would have been nice to put Andrus away a little earlier, as the pitch count is rising. I'll keep saying he needs to show a different look (changeup down or slider in to righties, changeup away 4S up-in to lefties). I have him at 74 pitches through four.

Fifth Inning
Murphy
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, ball
P3 - 2S, middle-down, HR (CF)

Young
P1 - 2S, in, 2B (LF/CF; and this is what happens when you aren't feeling your breaking ball and can't/won't go to a changeup)

Blalock
P1 - 4S, low-in, ball (velocity dropping on 4S)
P2 - SL, low-in, ball
P3 - CH, middle, foul (LF, linedrive)
P4 - 2S, low, ball
P5 - 2S, low-out, 1B (CF; too much of plate)

Byrd
P1 - SL, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low, strike (swinging)
P3 - SL, low, 1B (3B)

Cruz
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low, 1B (3B; ball hit hard down the line, Wigginton stops but can't make the play)

Bergesen pulled.

Inning Summary: Stuff out over the plate and very little velocity differential. Bergesen looked measured by the Texas hitters.

Impressions from Start #2: Again, no real surprises. When he's spotting his pitches, he can be difficult to square-up on, but without that changeup and without an ability to change the hitter's eye-level, I just don't see him making it through Major League lineups two and three times. It certainly isn't enough to say he isn't ready to be up with the big club, but he needs to get that changeup working, and he needs to have more confidence up in the zone with his four-seamer. Hitters are just way too comfortable by their second at bat.

Final Line:
4 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 SO, 1 BB, 3 HR
88 pitches / 59 Strikes

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First Start for Brad Bergesen (April 21, 2009 vs. Chicago)

Taking a break from a full article to do some live blogging! Since we were foiled in our attempt to follow Wieters/Price, I'm gonna hop on and give some live commentary on Brad Bergesen in his first ML start against the White Sox. Just got home, so we'll pick up the action in the second inning...

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Second Inning

Thome - soft groundout to Roberts

Dye - Four-pitch walk; Bergesen working outside and was unwilling to give in once he fell behind.

Konerko - Started out with a fastball outside, good placement; 2-seamer started on the black and ran inside, solid second pitch after FB away; way up an in with his 4-seamer, took off on him a bit; good 2-seamer with late life at the knees (swing and miss); 2-seamer started off on inner-third and ran in (weak foul ball 3B side); 2-seamer middle-down (GB to third, 5-4-3), caught too much of the plate but had enough run/depth to produce the grounder

Inning summary - Bergesen worked quickly and stayed around the zone. He's establishing his fastball and finding a rhythem. As he works through the order a second time, he'll need to mix in more offspeed/breaking stuff as Konerko had him pretty well measured. I think we'll move to a more traditional charting of his pitches next inning and see how that goes. We'll use this summary form: Pitch number, location, result (note, if any).

Third Inning

Pierzynski
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike

P2 - 2S, low, ball (might be CH -- interviewing his dad so delayed coverage of pitch)

P3 - 2S, low, 4-3 

Ramirez

P1 - 2S, low-out, 5-3 (still interviewing dad so they aren't showing the full pitch)

Anderson

P1 - 2S, low-out, ball (opened early -- overthrew a bit)

P2 - 2S , low-out, strike (good run, stayed closed in hips; pitch started outside of the zone and came back)

P3 - SL, low-out, ball

P4 - 2S, low, foul (good timing)

P5 - 2S, low-in, strikeout looking

Inning summary - Strong inning from Bergesen. Again, he worked quickly and attacked the zone with his fastball. Since MASN was interviewing his father, I only caught part of the pitch for a few pitches (you can check against gamecast to see what, if anything, I missed). Again, look for him to mix in more offspeed the second time through, but so far he has been impressive. He certainly isn't intimidated, and he's maintaining the same pace and approach that has made him successful in the minors. It's also worth noting that he isn't overthrowing -- he knows his game plan and is sticking to it (props to Zaun in this department; the two are working well).

Fourth Inning

Getz

P1 - 2S, low-out, ball

P2 - 2S, low-out, ball

P3 - 4S, inside, ball

P4 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)

P5 - 2S, up-out, ball (walk)

Fields

P1 - 2S, low-in, bunt foul

P2 - 2S, low, bunt foul

P3 - SL, low-out, ball

P4 - (good delay in stretch to disrupt batter timing) SL, low-out, ball

P5 - 2S, low-in, swinging strike (terrific placement, good compliment to looking strike in same location previous inning)

Quentin

P1 - (good delay in stretch almost leads to pick-off of Getz) 2S, low, swing and miss (good depth)

P2 - 2S, low, ball

P3 - 2S, middle, foul back (missed his spot but enough movement to prevent Quentin from squaring-up)

P4 - 4S, up, ball

P5 - 2S, inside, E5 (good pitch should have been DP, but Quentin hit it hard)

Thome

P1 - 2S, outside, foul left field (Thome had it measured but good life prevented squaring)

P2 - 2S, low-out, ball

P3 - 4S, up, ball (pretty clearly a strike)

P4 - 2S, out, foul 3B side (should follow with offspeed down-in)

P5 - 2S, in, strikeout looking (set up well by working out and up prior four pitches)

Dye

P1 - CH, low, ball

P2 - 2S, low, foul

P3 - CH, low-out, ball

P4 - 2S, out, single CF

Konerko

P1 - 2S, low, single RF

Inning Summary - As warned against, Bergesen was better timed by the White Sox hitters this time through. He didn't mix in his slider enough in the middle of the order, and Dye/Konerko were ready for his 2-seamer the second time around. We'll see how he bounces back next inning. So far, the outing has to be considered a success, but there aren't any surprises as far as how Bergy's stuff is playing against a veterean ML lineup. 

Fifth Inning

Pierzynski

P1 - 2S, low, ball

P2 - 2S, low-in, ball

P3 - 2S, low-in, ball

P4 - 4S, low-out, strike

P5 - 4S, in, foul 3B side

P6 - 4S, out, single RF

Ramirez

P1 - 2S, low, strike (looking)

P2 - SL, low-out, strike (swinging)

P3 - SL, low-out, ball

P4 - SL, low-out, ball

P5 - 4S, in, foul

P6 - 2S, up-in, single LF (missed up in the zone - target in)

Anderson

P1 - 2S, low, 6-4

Getz

P1 - 2S, low-away, strike (looking)

P2 - 2S, inside, strike (looking)

P3 - SL, low, foul 1B

P4 - SL, low-in, hit-by-pitch

Fields

P1 - SL, low, F9

Quentin

P1 - 2S, middle-in, strike (looking)

P2 - SL, low-out, 6-4

Inning Summary - All-in-all, not a bad inning from Bergesen. Chicago is, again, much more patient this time through the order -- as expected, Bergesen's margin for error is minimal. He didn't miss over the plate, and when he fell behind he was around where he wanted to be. Our book on him based on his MiL performances is right on with how he looks tonight. He has a chance to be successful when he's spotting his 2-seamer, but there just isn't any room to miss. His slider is an okay change-of-pace pitch, but the velocity differential isn't really there to throw-off hitters. He did a better job mixing the breaking ball this inning, but he needs to throw it for a strike more often to help his 2-seamer play multiple times through the order.

Sixth Inning

Thome

P1 - 2S, away, foul back

P2 - 2S, low, foul 1B

P3 - SL, out, ball (Zaun set up in -- great call but missed)

P4 - SL, low-in, ball (this was supposed to be the pitch before; executed this time)

P5 - 2S, out, ball

P6 - 4S, out, F8 (Thome didn't miss it by much, ball to warning track)

Dye

P1 - 2S, middle, strike (looking)

P2 - SL, low-middle, foul (back)

P3 - 2S, in, ball

P4 - SL, out, 6-3 (AVG depth on SL but set it up well; without previous pitch, Dye probably gets better wood)

Bergesen pulled.

Inning Summary - Bergesen executed his pitches well against Thome and Dye with the exception of P3 to Thome. His slider isn't a plus pitch, which means he needs to set it up for it to be effective. We see this in the Dye at bat, and likewise we see that Thome wasn't fooled in P4 after seeing the SL on P3. 

Overall Impression - Good outing for Bergesen. This offseason, at CamdenDepot.com, we had Bergesen pegged as a leading candidate to be the first called-up and a decent bet to produce back-end quality outings. His first start fits right into that projection. There is lots to be excited about, including a terrific pace, generally good pitch location and a fine execution of a game plan. Things I'd like to see next time around? More sliders for strikes and changeups. It could be that some of his 4-seamers were changeups, but honestly it looked like he pretty much steered clear of that offering for the evening.

One last note, on a couple of occasions, Bergesen delayed in the stretch. One time, this was clearly to try and throw off the batter; the other led Getz to jump in his lead, almost creating a pick-off. Bergesen was poised and in reasonably in command of his arsenal. Baltimore fans should be pleased.

Final line: 5.2 IP, 4 SO, 3 R, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 95 pitches 

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Keep Zaunie In There

Here's a short one, but I thought it was mildly interesting and may lead to a bit of discussion. It regards the strange pattern of O's games thus far, which many people seem to have noticed.

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With Gregg Zaun behind the plate, the O's are 6-0 with 45 runs scored (though ZAUN! is hitting just .136/.269/.273) and 28 runs allowed (4.67 per game).

With Chad Moeller behind the plate, the O's are 0-3 with 11 runs scored (Moeller is hitting .364/.364/.727) and 41 runs allowed (13.67 per game).

Incredibly small sample size, but it at least merits keeping an eye one. (Not really, but it's kind of interesting.)
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Wieters vs. Price -- Norfolk at Durham, 4/10/2008 (7:05pm)

The top two prospects in baseball will square-off tonight in Durham. Provided I'm home in time, I'll be posting here throughout the game and watching via live stream. Pre-game reading available after the jump.

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Here is some pre-game reading:

Durham Press Release

BaseballAmerica blogs from the game last night, focusing on Wieters (they'll be at it again tonight, so check in with them if I'm not able to log on).

MiLB.com profile on David Price for their Top 50 Prospects series.

MiLB.com profile on Matt Wieters for their Top 50 Prospects series.
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No Game Yesterday, so We Get a Weird Article

Rick Maese wrote a column today.

The two major points that he has from the players' perspective is that they have no clue who he is and they want to know him. Basically, the way it is related is that the players are orphans. So what does this mean to you?


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Some more interesting points from the article:

1. Before opening day, only Mora and Roberts had met Angelos.
2. Trembley and MacPhail want him around more often.
3. Players fish in his pond.
4. He picks up dinner tabs.
5. Adam Jones had a rock star reaction to him.
6. Maese believes all of the players want him around.

Personally, I understand why Angelos has basically disappeared over the past decade. One, he is busy. Two, he is pretty much universally hated by the Baltimore fan. He made a series of completely awful management moves and plied his hand in the overall workings of the club, which occasionally resulted in rather awful results. That said, I don't care if he shows his mug around or not. I'm not sure why it matters to the players so much. I have honestly never cared about the guy who signs my checks. I care about my work. If he can walk around and act like an old sweet Grandpa with individually wrapped hard candy in his pocket . . . I do not mind him developing elaborate fist bumps with Brian Roberts and Cesar Izturis. Perhaps the only concern I would have is that Angelos might develop friendships and loyalty to some of the guys. That typically is not good for business in baseball where turnover is somewhat required to have success. Otherwise, we'll wind up with Mora playing third until he is 45.

Anyone care to expand or contradict these comments?
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Opening Day

All thoughts and comments about Opening Day . . . let the conversation whirl at its own pace.

Using ZIPS and the run projector tool, pitching adjusted score:

Orioles 3.557
Yankees 4.975

Lineups behind the jump.

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Runs/G for Lineup: 5.082
Adjusted for CC: 3.557

Brian Roberts - 2B
Adam Jones - CF
Nick Markakis - RF
Melvin Mora - 3B
Aubrey Huff - 1B
Ty Wigginton - DH
Luke Scott - LF
Gregg Zaun - C
Cesar Izturis - SS

Jeremy Guthrie - P

vs

Runs/G for Lineup: 5.408
Adjusted for Guthrie: 4.975

Derek Jeter - SS
Johnny Damon - LF
Mark Teixeira -1B
Hideki Matsui - DH
Jorge Posada - C
Robinson Cano - 2B
Xavier Nady - RF
Cody Ransom - 3B
Brett Gardner - CF

CC Sabathia - P



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Final-ish WAR Projections

With the roster more or less finalized, I've done likewise for the projections for the BeyondTheBoxScore WAR project (though final touches are of course a possibility). My spreadsheet is here, and the underlying stats are below.

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Offense:

Matt Wieters:
300 PA, .289/.359/.482, 10 HR, .365 wOBA

Gregg Zaun:
300 PA, .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA

Aubrey Huff:
600 PA, .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA

Brian Roberts:
625 PA, .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA

Cesar Izturis:
550 PA, .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA

Melvin Mora:
550 PA, .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA

Felix Pie:
500 PA, .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA

Adam Jones:
575 PA, .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA

Nick Markakis:
650 PA, .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA

Luke Scott:
575 PA, .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA

Ty Wigginton:
475 PA, .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA

Chad Moeller:
75 PA, .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA

Ryan Freel:
300 PA, .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA

Robert Andino:
100 PA, .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA

Luis Montanez:
75 PA, .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA

Total offense: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA

In 2008, the O's hit .269/.333/.429, 172 HR, .340 wOBA so things don't look all that different. Huff and Mora probably won't repeat their '08 seasons, but the additions of Wigginton and Wieters help. A bit above average again, while putting a plus defense on the field (especially in the outfield).

Starting pitching:

Pitcher	IP	ERA
Jeremy Guthrie	180	4.15
Koji Uehara	150	4.70
Rich Hill	100	5.00
Matt Hendrickson	80	5.13
Adam Eaton	70	5.30
Alfredo Simon	70	5.43
Brad Bergesen	75	5.18
Chris Waters	65	5.51
David Pauley	55	5.40
Danys Baez	35	5.47
Matt Albers	30	4.74
Radhames Liz	25	5.52
Total	935	4.95

Relief pitching:

Pitcher	IP	ERA
George Sherrill	55	3.79
Jim Johnson	60	3.85
Chris Ray	50	4.10
Dennis Sarfate	55	4.37
Jamie Walker	35	4.72
Danys Baez	40	4.70
Kam Mickolio	35	4.24
Brian Bass	45	4.58
Brad Hennessey	40	4.52
Matt Albers	35	4.38
Matt Hendrickson	25	4.32
Radhames Liz	35	4.73
Total	510	4.31

Pitching total: 4.73 ERA

Last year it was 5.15 so that's a big improvement. It's not really "better" though, as it's really hard to pitch that poorly (5.14 FIP too) two years in a row. Only two guys in the rotation with ERA's under 5 (Guthrie and Uehara) would make games hard to watch most days, so hopefully they can stay healthy all year. And there's a decent chance that someone (anyone, please) actually lucks into a pretty good season. Alternately, it's likely that one or two guys put up an ERA above 6. The idea is that those guys get replaced quickly (if the ERA is deserved) by someone who is less bad.

Overall, that team has about 78 wins worth of talent based on Wins Above Replacement. Given that they play in the AL East I would personally be inclined to knock another win or two off of that number, but a 75-77 win season is what I'm looking at. And no September collapse would be nice.
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