Pitch Chart #3 for Bradley Bergesen. Let's see if he can start flashing that change-up and and locate his fastballs...
________________________________________________
Toronto
Scutaro, SS, .280
Hill, 2B, .376
Rios, RF, .248
Wells, CF, .282
Lind, DH, .320
Bautista, 3B, .310
Overbay, 1B, .250
Chavez, C, .273
Snider, LF, .258
First Inning
Scutaro
P1 - 2S, low, ball
P2 - 2S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, low-in, strike (looking)
P4 - 2S, middle-out, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, low, 6-3
Hill
P1 - 2S, low, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, foul (1B)
P3 - 2S, out, 5-3
Rios
P1 - 2S, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, in, 5-3
Inning Summary: All 2-seamers and three ground balls. Good first inning and good location on his pitches. Toronto was a little eager at the plate, which Bergesen exploited to the tune of a 10-pitch inning.
Inning: 10 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 10 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Second Inning
Wells
P1 - SL, in, 2B (CF, E9)
Lind
P1 - 2S, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low-out, ball (looked squeezed)
P4 - 2S, low, 4-3
Bautista
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P4 - SL, low-out, ball
P5 - 2S, low, foul (1B)
P6 - 2S, up, 1B (RF)
Overbay
P1 - 2S, out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball (looked squeezed, again; not getting that pitch)
P3 - 2S, in, ball
P4 - 2S, low-in, ball
Chavez
P1 - 2S, low-in, strike (looked like the same spot called balls for lefties)
P2 - CH, low-out, foul (1B)
P3 - 2S, low-in, foul (back)
P4 - SL, low-out, ball (good waste)
P5 - 2S, middle, 1B (RF)
Snider
P1 - SL, out, ball
P2 - 2S, out, ball
P3 - 2S, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, up-in, strike (looking; good location)
P5 - 2S, low-out, 4-6
Scutaro
P1 - SL, out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, 1B (LF; not enough velo differential but good spot and depth)
Hill
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low-out, ball (good approach, just not executing)
P4 - 2S, low-in, foul (3B)
P5 - SL, low-out, 6-3
Inning Summary: I actually like Bergesen's approach today, but he isn't executing on his pitches. Too many fastballs catching the fat 1/3 of the plate and getting behind too often. It's nice to see the slider, but he has to set it up a little better, since the depth and bite are average. Better execution and he should see more success. His quick first inning is a big bonus, as he threw a lot of pitches in inning two.
Inning: 32 pitches/16 strikes, 1 BB, 4 H, 0 SO, 3 ER
Total: 42 pitcher/23 strikes, 1 BB, 4 H, 0 SO, 3 ER
Third Inning
Rios
P1 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low, 1B (CF)
Wells
P1 - 2S, middle, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P3 - 2S, middle, 1B (LF; bad spot up 0-2)
Lind
P1 - 2S, up-out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, ball
P3 - 2S, out, ball
P4 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P5 - 2S, low, 3-6-3
Bautista
P1 - 2S, in, ball
P2 - SL, low-out, ball (target low-in)
P3 - 2S, low-in, ball (fifth 3-0 count!)
P4 - 2S, low-out, ball
Overbay
P1 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P3 - 2S, up-out, foul tip (caught)
Inning Summary: Bergesen just isn't commanding his stuff. Again, falling behind and missing his spots with his fastball (and slider). Looks like "one of those days" where his pitches aren't there for him. It's worth noting how he handles it -- which hasn't been bad -- but there isn't enough margin in his pure stuff for it to be really effective when it isn't on. At least his 2-seamer gives him the opportunity to get out of trouble via the double-play.
Inning: 17 pitches/10 strikes, 1 BB, 2 H, 1 SO, 0 ER
Total: 59 pitches/33 strikes, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER
Fourth Inning
Chavez
P1 - strike (missed pitch)
P2 - SL, in, ball
P3 - 2S, low-in, ball
P4 - 4S, up-in, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, middle, 4-3
Snider
P1 - 4S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - CH, middle, F8 (good velo differential allowed him to miss up a bit)
Scutaro
P1 - SL, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low, 1-3
Inning Summary: Very good inning. Still isn't really hitting his spots, but he mixed his pitches well. He kept his pitch count down and should get through the fifth -- an accomplishment given his third inning.
Inning: 10 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 69 pitches/40 strikes, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER
Fifth Inning
Hill
P1 - SL, in, ball
P2 - 2S, in, ball
P3 - 4S, low, F8
Rios
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - SL, low-out, ball (missed badly)
P3 - 2S, low-in, strike (looking)
P4 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P5 - SL, low-out, ball
P6 - SL, in, F9
Wells
P1 - 2S, middle, foul (1B)
P2 - SL, low, foul (back)
P3 - 4S, out, 1-3
Inning Summary: Another solid inning, and another inning where Bergesen isn't really executing, but is mixing well. Fell behind to first two hitters, again (both 2-0). Another relatively short inning might by him a sixth trip to the mound. We'll see...
Inning: 12 pitches/7 strikes, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 81 pitches/47 strikes, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER
Sixth Inning
Lind
P1 - 2S, out, ball
P2 - SL, out, ball (spinner, maybe CH?)
P3 - 2S, low-in, strike
P4 - SL, out, ball
P5 - 2S, out, strike (looking; got some help)
P6 - 2S, low-in, ball
Bautista
P1 - 2S, no location (wide shot), F8
Overbay
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking; wasn't getting that earlier)
P2 - CH, low-out, 6-3
Inning Summary: A third straight solid inning. Bergesen still wasn't sharp with his stuff, but it looks like he's managing an off day as well as can be expected. He isn't hanging his stuff over the plate any more, and he's putting himself in position to get soft contact, even if his pitches aren't as crisp as he'd like. 7th?
Inning: 9 pitches/5 strikes, 1 BB, 0 H, 0 SO, 0 ER
Total: 90 pitches/52 strikes, 3 BB, 6 H, 1 SO, 3 ER
Seventh Inning - Bergesen pulled; Baez in
Game Summery: Bergesen did not command his stuff and his slider was less consistent than usual. Still, he managed to battle through, allowing a respectable 3 earned runs over six innings pitched. He did a better job mixing in his change-up (I counted five) and generally had a better pitch-mix throughout the game. I'd like to see him keep this approach through his next start and hopefully just execute his pitches a little better. Could have been much worse; hats off to Bergesen for battling through.
Final Line: 6 IP, 3 BB, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 SO
90 pitches/52 strikes
________________________________________________
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
Chris Tillman Start (5/1/2009 at Scranton)
Taking a look at Tillman against AAA Yankees. Observations on positional prospects will be written up separately. Pitch charting follows...
________________________________________________
Yankees Lineup:
Nunez, SS
Rodriguez, DH
Linden, LF
S. Duncan, RF
Miranda, 1B
Jackson, CF
E. Duncan, 3B
Malec, 2B
Plittere, C
First Inning
Nunez, SS
P1 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, low-in, foul tip (caught)
Rodriguez, DH
P1 - FB, out, ball (good run)
P2 - FB, low-in, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P5 - FB, up-in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-out, ball
Linden, LF
P1 - FB, low-in, ball (good pick by Wieters)
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, low-out, 4-6
S. Duncan
P1 - FB, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, up-in, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, up-out, 2B (CF)
Miranda
P1 - CB, up-out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; nice depth on pitch and solid arm speed)
P3 - FB, up-in, ball
P4 - CH, out, F8
Inning Summary: Tillman worked to establish his fastball, struggling a bit with command. He was around his spots but not necessarily hitting them. One thing that was nice was his use of secondary stuff against Miranda, setting-up his second change-up with a solid high fastball. Stadium gun has him in the 90-92 range with his fastball.
20 pitches/13 strikes, 1BB, 1 SO, 1 H, 1 ER
Second Inning
Jackson
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, out, ball (very good depth)
P3 - FB, low, foul (RF)
P4 - FB, in, foul (1B)
P5 - FB, low-in, F9
E. Duncan
P1 - CB, out, ball (good shape/depth, again)
P2 - FB, low, foul (back)
P3 - CB, low, strike (looking; plus depth and bite)
P4 - CH, in, foul (back)
P5 - FB, low-out, foul (3B)
P6 - FB, out, foul (back)
P7 - CB, in, foul (1B)
P8 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; good depth and arm speed)
Malec
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, in, ball
P3 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, out, ball (good waste and change where Malec's looking)
P5 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P6 - CB, up-in, ball
P7 - FB, low-in, L4 (Malec squared-up but right at 4)
Inning Summary: Much better mix of secondary stuff. Tillman is snapping off a plus CB bordering on plus-plus, getting very good depth and hard bite. A couple were a little soft (shape wasn't as tight) but overall the pitch looks good. His changeup has some nice depth and looks like it could definitely be an average to above-average pitch if he keeps working. I hope to see him pitch off his curve a bit the second time through the order.
Inning: 20 pitches/15 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 40 pitches/28 strikes, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1 H, 1 ER
Third Inning
Pilittere
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, up, 1B (CF)
Nunez
P1 - FB, middle, foul (RF)
P2 - FB, low-in, F3 (foul)
Rodriguez
P1 - CB, low-out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, 4-6
Linden
P1 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P2 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, foul (LF; seems like a good spot for offspeed)
P5 - CB, out, strike (looking)
Inning Summary: Tillman looked pretty comfortable and had his most economical inning. I'd like to see the change-up more, if only because it's supposedly something he's to be working on and has looked pretty good the handful of times he's used it tonight. Overall, solid inning and much needed to keep the pitch count down a bit.
Inning: 12 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, 1 H, O ER
Total: 52 pitches/37 strikes, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2 H, 1 ER
Fourth Inning
S. Duncan
P1 - FB, low, ball (bounced in -- hey, it's been a long wait)
P2 - FB, out, ball
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike
P5 - FB, in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-in, ball
Mendoza (PH for Miranda)
P1 - FB, out, ball
[Wieters/Tillman conference]
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, out, strike (looking; framed)
P4 - CB, low, strike (looking; snapped a good one)
Jackson
P1 - CB, low-out, ball (softer shape, came around it a bit)
P2 - FB, in, foul (back)
P3 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P4 - FB, low-out, ball
P5 - FB, in, 1B (RF; not a bad pitch but Jackson stayed inside of it)
E. Duncan
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, low, F7 (nice tracking by Reimold, back and to the line)
Malec
P1 - FB, up, ball (good to see him elevate it to start the AB)
P2 - FB, out, 2B (LF; belt-high and over the outer-half; missed inside target)
[Mike Griffin to mound w/Wieters and Tillman]
Pilittere
P1 - FB, up-in, F7
Inning Summary: I know this is about Tillman, but Wieters is really a solid receiver. He's quiet behind the plate and really absorbs the ball well -- the third pitch to Mendoza looked about three inches out, but Wieters took it in with minimal movement in framing and no movement at all in his body. Back to Tillman, it's hard to judge to harshly after the long layover in the top half of the inning, but he didn't look sharp. He wasn't hitting his spots and ended up around the belt way too often. Still would like to see him pitch off the curve a little more to change the hitter's eye-level, and of course the change-up would be nice.
Inning: 21 pitches/11 strikes, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 H, 2 ER
Total: 73 pitches, 48 strikez, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4 H, 3 ER
Fifth Inning
Nunez
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P3 - CB, up-in, strike (looking; great bite)
P4 - FB, out, 4-3
Rodriguez
P1 - CB, out, ball
P2 - FB, out, strike (swinging; way late, good job pitching off CB!)
P3 - CB, low, strike (swinging)
P4 - CH, low, strike (swinging; excellent pitch sequence had Rodriguez looking FB on P4)
Linden
P1 - CB, low-out, strike (looking; is he reading this? Again, way to pitch off the CB!)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging; again way behind after CB set-up)
P3 - CB, low-in, strike (swinging)
Inning Summary: Outstanding inning. Great job pitching off the secondary stuff and keeping the hitters guessing after being forced to the FB the previous inning. Should earn another trip to the mound in the sixth -- it'd be nice to see him get through six after laboring a bit with his pitch count early.
Inning: 11 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 2 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 84 pitches/57 strikes, 2 BB, 6 SO, 4 H, 3 ER
Tillman pulled; Albers in
Game Summary: Tillman put together a nice little start after showing some inconsistent command early. His last inning was by far his best, and it would have been nice to see him out for one more (particularly to face Duncan and Jackson again). It's clear what Tillman needs to continue to work on -- command in the zone, curveball command and using his changeup. He'll also need to build up some more in-game endurance, though some of that will come as he continues to fill out and build his overall durability. His curveball flashed plus-plus today, though it generally sat around plus, with average command. His change-up was a very good pitch the few times he threw it. Hopefully he'll continue to integrate it into his arsenal. Another nice start; still not Major League ready, but he's clearly working his way there.
Final Line : 5 IP, 2 BB, 4 H, 6 SO, 3 ER, 84 pitches/57 strikes
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
Yankees Lineup:
Nunez, SS
Rodriguez, DH
Linden, LF
S. Duncan, RF
Miranda, 1B
Jackson, CF
E. Duncan, 3B
Malec, 2B
Plittere, C
First Inning
Nunez, SS
P1 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, low-in, foul tip (caught)
Rodriguez, DH
P1 - FB, out, ball (good run)
P2 - FB, low-in, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P5 - FB, up-in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-out, ball
Linden, LF
P1 - FB, low-in, ball (good pick by Wieters)
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, low-out, 4-6
S. Duncan
P1 - FB, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, up-in, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, up-out, 2B (CF)
Miranda
P1 - CB, up-out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; nice depth on pitch and solid arm speed)
P3 - FB, up-in, ball
P4 - CH, out, F8
Inning Summary: Tillman worked to establish his fastball, struggling a bit with command. He was around his spots but not necessarily hitting them. One thing that was nice was his use of secondary stuff against Miranda, setting-up his second change-up with a solid high fastball. Stadium gun has him in the 90-92 range with his fastball.
20 pitches/13 strikes, 1BB, 1 SO, 1 H, 1 ER
Second Inning
Jackson
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, out, ball (very good depth)
P3 - FB, low, foul (RF)
P4 - FB, in, foul (1B)
P5 - FB, low-in, F9
E. Duncan
P1 - CB, out, ball (good shape/depth, again)
P2 - FB, low, foul (back)
P3 - CB, low, strike (looking; plus depth and bite)
P4 - CH, in, foul (back)
P5 - FB, low-out, foul (3B)
P6 - FB, out, foul (back)
P7 - CB, in, foul (1B)
P8 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; good depth and arm speed)
Malec
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, in, ball
P3 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, out, ball (good waste and change where Malec's looking)
P5 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P6 - CB, up-in, ball
P7 - FB, low-in, L4 (Malec squared-up but right at 4)
Inning Summary: Much better mix of secondary stuff. Tillman is snapping off a plus CB bordering on plus-plus, getting very good depth and hard bite. A couple were a little soft (shape wasn't as tight) but overall the pitch looks good. His changeup has some nice depth and looks like it could definitely be an average to above-average pitch if he keeps working. I hope to see him pitch off his curve a bit the second time through the order.
Inning: 20 pitches/15 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 40 pitches/28 strikes, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1 H, 1 ER
Third Inning
Pilittere
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, up, 1B (CF)
Nunez
P1 - FB, middle, foul (RF)
P2 - FB, low-in, F3 (foul)
Rodriguez
P1 - CB, low-out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, 4-6
Linden
P1 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P2 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, foul (LF; seems like a good spot for offspeed)
P5 - CB, out, strike (looking)
Inning Summary: Tillman looked pretty comfortable and had his most economical inning. I'd like to see the change-up more, if only because it's supposedly something he's to be working on and has looked pretty good the handful of times he's used it tonight. Overall, solid inning and much needed to keep the pitch count down a bit.
Inning: 12 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, 1 H, O ER
Total: 52 pitches/37 strikes, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2 H, 1 ER
Fourth Inning
S. Duncan
P1 - FB, low, ball (bounced in -- hey, it's been a long wait)
P2 - FB, out, ball
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike
P5 - FB, in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-in, ball
Mendoza (PH for Miranda)
P1 - FB, out, ball
[Wieters/Tillman conference]
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, out, strike (looking; framed)
P4 - CB, low, strike (looking; snapped a good one)
Jackson
P1 - CB, low-out, ball (softer shape, came around it a bit)
P2 - FB, in, foul (back)
P3 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P4 - FB, low-out, ball
P5 - FB, in, 1B (RF; not a bad pitch but Jackson stayed inside of it)
E. Duncan
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, low, F7 (nice tracking by Reimold, back and to the line)
Malec
P1 - FB, up, ball (good to see him elevate it to start the AB)
P2 - FB, out, 2B (LF; belt-high and over the outer-half; missed inside target)
[Mike Griffin to mound w/Wieters and Tillman]
Pilittere
P1 - FB, up-in, F7
Inning Summary: I know this is about Tillman, but Wieters is really a solid receiver. He's quiet behind the plate and really absorbs the ball well -- the third pitch to Mendoza looked about three inches out, but Wieters took it in with minimal movement in framing and no movement at all in his body. Back to Tillman, it's hard to judge to harshly after the long layover in the top half of the inning, but he didn't look sharp. He wasn't hitting his spots and ended up around the belt way too often. Still would like to see him pitch off the curve a little more to change the hitter's eye-level, and of course the change-up would be nice.
Inning: 21 pitches/11 strikes, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 H, 2 ER
Total: 73 pitches, 48 strikez, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4 H, 3 ER
Fifth Inning
Nunez
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P3 - CB, up-in, strike (looking; great bite)
P4 - FB, out, 4-3
Rodriguez
P1 - CB, out, ball
P2 - FB, out, strike (swinging; way late, good job pitching off CB!)
P3 - CB, low, strike (swinging)
P4 - CH, low, strike (swinging; excellent pitch sequence had Rodriguez looking FB on P4)
Linden
P1 - CB, low-out, strike (looking; is he reading this? Again, way to pitch off the CB!)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging; again way behind after CB set-up)
P3 - CB, low-in, strike (swinging)
Inning Summary: Outstanding inning. Great job pitching off the secondary stuff and keeping the hitters guessing after being forced to the FB the previous inning. Should earn another trip to the mound in the sixth -- it'd be nice to see him get through six after laboring a bit with his pitch count early.
Inning: 11 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 2 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 84 pitches/57 strikes, 2 BB, 6 SO, 4 H, 3 ER
Tillman pulled; Albers in
Game Summary: Tillman put together a nice little start after showing some inconsistent command early. His last inning was by far his best, and it would have been nice to see him out for one more (particularly to face Duncan and Jackson again). It's clear what Tillman needs to continue to work on -- command in the zone, curveball command and using his changeup. He'll also need to build up some more in-game endurance, though some of that will come as he continues to fill out and build his overall durability. His curveball flashed plus-plus today, though it generally sat around plus, with average command. His change-up was a very good pitch the few times he threw it. Hopefully he'll continue to integrate it into his arsenal. Another nice start; still not Major League ready, but he's clearly working his way there.
Final Line : 5 IP, 2 BB, 4 H, 6 SO, 3 ER, 84 pitches/57 strikes
________________________________________________
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Zaun is Unlucky?
From Roch Kubatko's blog:
Trembley noted that Zaun has hit "in some tough luck."
"I think for a guy who has played as long as Zaun has, you've got to look at the track record and see what he is, and that's basically a .250 hitter, and I think that's what he would be," Trembley said.
Is Dave Trembley correct in his assessment of Gregg Zaun this season?
________________________________________________
A quick way to find out is PrOPS.
Zaun's Actual Line: .111/.238/.185
Zaun's PrOPS Line: .241/.347/.303
It does appear that Zaun has been unlucky early this season. And if you take his expected line through PrOPS, he is much closer to the .250 hitter that Dave Trembley is expecting.
So should Chad Moeller get more playing time at this point?
Moeller's Actual Line: .250/.318/.450
Moeller's PrOPS Line: .316/.373/.538
Probably. Based on Moeller's hot bat and Zaun's cold one it probably wouldn't hurt things to split the time equally at least.
________________________________________________
Trembley noted that Zaun has hit "in some tough luck."
"I think for a guy who has played as long as Zaun has, you've got to look at the track record and see what he is, and that's basically a .250 hitter, and I think that's what he would be," Trembley said.
Is Dave Trembley correct in his assessment of Gregg Zaun this season?
________________________________________________
A quick way to find out is PrOPS.
Zaun's Actual Line: .111/.238/.185
Zaun's PrOPS Line: .241/.347/.303
It does appear that Zaun has been unlucky early this season. And if you take his expected line through PrOPS, he is much closer to the .250 hitter that Dave Trembley is expecting.
So should Chad Moeller get more playing time at this point?
Moeller's Actual Line: .250/.318/.450
Moeller's PrOPS Line: .316/.373/.538
Probably. Based on Moeller's hot bat and Zaun's cold one it probably wouldn't hurt things to split the time equally at least.
________________________________________________
Monday, April 27, 2009
Is there any room for Pie in Left Field?
We are probably painfully aware at this point that Nolan Reimold is beating up on pitchers in AAA. This has included two launched balls off of David Price, the esteemed No. 2 in BA's top prospects. He is batting 417/486/750 and is on pace to slug 50 home runs in a full season of AAA. His MLE OPS is 1027. This makes it difficult on Felix Pie. So far he has not performed with a line of 167/259/229. That is bad. Added to this, part of his charm was bringing above average defense to left field. He has just recently achieved average defensive value and it is arguable whether he will advance beyond that.
Now . . . your head might explode here. Pie has been unlucky. More after the jump.
________________________________________________
There are some basic rules of thumb you can apply to batted ball data. You look at a line and you will find that 0% of infield flies result in a hit, 22% of fly balls land for a hit, 28% of groundballs find holes through the infield, and 74% of line drives find a home in the outfield grass. Now, Felix has registered 2 infield flies, 13 fly balls, 12 grounders, and 8 line drives.
His hit rate so far has been 0% for infield flies, 15% for flies, 0% for ground balls, and 75% for line drives. See something off here? None of his grounders have found holes. He should have 4 ground ball hits. This would raise his batting average to .250 . . . his OBP to .327 . . . his slugging to .313. His OPS would be a whopping 640 as opposed to 488. Yeah, that is still pretty bad, but not as bad as we thought. Well, unless someone can come up with a good idea why his grounders do not make it through the infield? A line drive hitter typically hits hard grounders.
So, how much more rope do you all think he should have?
________________________________________________
Now . . . your head might explode here. Pie has been unlucky. More after the jump.
________________________________________________
There are some basic rules of thumb you can apply to batted ball data. You look at a line and you will find that 0% of infield flies result in a hit, 22% of fly balls land for a hit, 28% of groundballs find holes through the infield, and 74% of line drives find a home in the outfield grass. Now, Felix has registered 2 infield flies, 13 fly balls, 12 grounders, and 8 line drives.
His hit rate so far has been 0% for infield flies, 15% for flies, 0% for ground balls, and 75% for line drives. See something off here? None of his grounders have found holes. He should have 4 ground ball hits. This would raise his batting average to .250 . . . his OBP to .327 . . . his slugging to .313. His OPS would be a whopping 640 as opposed to 488. Yeah, that is still pretty bad, but not as bad as we thought. Well, unless someone can come up with a good idea why his grounders do not make it through the infield? A line drive hitter typically hits hard grounders.
So, how much more rope do you all think he should have?
________________________________________________
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Brad Bergesen: Second Start (April 26, 2009)
Charting Brad's second start -- this time against a tough Texas lineup. Let's see if he utilizes his slider and his changeup a little more effectively...
________________________________________________
First Inning
Kinsler
P1 - 2S, inside, long foul LF line
P2 - SL, outside, soft foul back
P3 - SL, low-outside, strike (swing, Kinsler fooled badly)
Murphy
P1 - 4S, low-out, strike, looking
P2 - 2S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, outside, ball
P4 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P5 - SL, low-in, ball (great location)
P6 - 2S, low-outside, foul back
P7 - 2S, outside, foul back
P8 - SL, low-in, foul soft back (needed a little more in, but good spot)
P9 - 2S, low, 4-3 (soft grounder, rolled over)
Young
P1 - SL, low, foul back
P2 - 2S, up-in, foul back
P3 - SL, low, strike (swinging)
Inning Summary: Very strong first inning. Bergesen did a nice job of setting-up his slider and getting good placement with his fastball. It looks like his 2S and SL are tough to differentiate out of his hand and arm slot, which should help both play up. Kinsler was looking FB and just missed a homer on the first pitch (Bergesen leaving it a bit up from the target. Overall, a strong start.
Second Inning
Blalock
P1 - 4S, inside, strike (looking)
P2 - CH, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - SL, low-in, ball
P4 - SL, low-out, F8 (end of the bat, reaching)
Byrd
P1 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, foul (3B side)
P3 - SL, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, inside, ball
P5 - SL, outside, ball
P6 - 2S, up-in, 2B (not a bad spot, Byrd just stayed inside of it and dumped it down the line)
Cruz
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low-out, foul
P4 - SL, low-out, strike (swinging; good tilt)
Davis
P1 - SL, low, ball
P2 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P3 - SL, low, HR (straight away CF; SL was a spinner that caught too much of the plate)
Saltalamacchia
P1 - SL, low-in, ball
P2 - 2S, in, foul back
P3 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P4 - SL, low-in, 1B (RF corner; again, SL spinning a bit and catching too much of the plate)
Andrus
P1 - SL, out, strike (swinging -- camera late coming back))
P2 - SL, in, foul back (camera late again)
P3 - 2S, middle, F9 (hit hard to right/center gap)
Inning Summary: 24 pich inning, 39 total. Bergesen was effective when he was hitting his spots, and ineffective when he wasn't. As we touched on in his first start, his pure stuff doesn't allow him to be imprecise. I'd like to see him mix in some more changeups the second time through the order -- I may have missed one or two due to the camera being late getting back to the pitch.
Third Inning
Kinsler
P1 - SL, middle, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, foul (back)
P3 - 4S, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, middle, 4-3
Murphy
P1 - 2S, low, ball
P2 - 4S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, low, foul (1B)
P4 - 2S, out, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, out, ball
P6 - 4S, in, ball
Young
P1 - SL, low, ball
P2 - 2S, up, foul (back)
P3 - SL, low, E6
Blalock
P1 - 2S, outside, ball
P2 - 2S, outside, ball (not finishing; aiming outside)
P3 - 2S, low-out, 3-6
Byrd
P1 - 2S, inside, foul (back)
P2 - 2S, outside, 5-4
Inning Summary: Better inning for Bergesen, though he went back to relying primarily on his 2S to try and induce groundballs. Again, I'd like to see the change mixed in a bit. He doesn't look particularly confident in his slider today, so something to change pace would be good. Also, while he needs to work down to be successful, it would be good to change the hitter's eye-level and throw a 4S up a couple of times when he's ahead.
Fourth Inning
Cruz (I'd like to see him work in with the 2S)
P1 - SL, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - 4S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, out, 4-3 (soft groundball; did a good job working inside-out to get the roll-over)
Davis
P1 - 4S, low-in, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low, foul (back)
P4 - 2S, out, F7
Saltalamacchia (I'd like to see him work down-out with the CH)
P1 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, single (CF)
Andrus
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-in, foul (3B)
P3 - 2S, low-in, foul (back; 4S up-in would be nice)
P4 - 2S, in, foul (3B; SL in would be nice)
P5 - SL, low-out, ball
P6 - 4S, low-in, foul
P7 - 4S, up, single (CF; caught way too much of plate)
Kinsler
P1 - 2S, in, 5-4
Inning Summary: Bergy didn't look like he wanted to throw anything off-speed to Davis. Fortunately, he kept the ball down and got soft contact. It would have been nice to put Andrus away a little earlier, as the pitch count is rising. I'll keep saying he needs to show a different look (changeup down or slider in to righties, changeup away 4S up-in to lefties). I have him at 74 pitches through four.
Fifth Inning
Murphy
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, ball
P3 - 2S, middle-down, HR (CF)
Young
P1 - 2S, in, 2B (LF/CF; and this is what happens when you aren't feeling your breaking ball and can't/won't go to a changeup)
Blalock
P1 - 4S, low-in, ball (velocity dropping on 4S)
P2 - SL, low-in, ball
P3 - CH, middle, foul (LF, linedrive)
P4 - 2S, low, ball
P5 - 2S, low-out, 1B (CF; too much of plate)
Byrd
P1 - SL, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low, strike (swinging)
P3 - SL, low, 1B (3B)
Cruz
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low, 1B (3B; ball hit hard down the line, Wigginton stops but can't make the play)
Bergesen pulled.
Inning Summary: Stuff out over the plate and very little velocity differential. Bergesen looked measured by the Texas hitters.
Impressions from Start #2: Again, no real surprises. When he's spotting his pitches, he can be difficult to square-up on, but without that changeup and without an ability to change the hitter's eye-level, I just don't see him making it through Major League lineups two and three times. It certainly isn't enough to say he isn't ready to be up with the big club, but he needs to get that changeup working, and he needs to have more confidence up in the zone with his four-seamer. Hitters are just way too comfortable by their second at bat.
Final Line:
4 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 SO, 1 BB, 3 HR
88 pitches / 59 Strikes
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
First Inning
Kinsler
P1 - 2S, inside, long foul LF line
P2 - SL, outside, soft foul back
P3 - SL, low-outside, strike (swing, Kinsler fooled badly)
Murphy
P1 - 4S, low-out, strike, looking
P2 - 2S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, outside, ball
P4 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P5 - SL, low-in, ball (great location)
P6 - 2S, low-outside, foul back
P7 - 2S, outside, foul back
P8 - SL, low-in, foul soft back (needed a little more in, but good spot)
P9 - 2S, low, 4-3 (soft grounder, rolled over)
Young
P1 - SL, low, foul back
P2 - 2S, up-in, foul back
P3 - SL, low, strike (swinging)
Inning Summary: Very strong first inning. Bergesen did a nice job of setting-up his slider and getting good placement with his fastball. It looks like his 2S and SL are tough to differentiate out of his hand and arm slot, which should help both play up. Kinsler was looking FB and just missed a homer on the first pitch (Bergesen leaving it a bit up from the target. Overall, a strong start.
Second Inning
Blalock
P1 - 4S, inside, strike (looking)
P2 - CH, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - SL, low-in, ball
P4 - SL, low-out, F8 (end of the bat, reaching)
Byrd
P1 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, foul (3B side)
P3 - SL, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, inside, ball
P5 - SL, outside, ball
P6 - 2S, up-in, 2B (not a bad spot, Byrd just stayed inside of it and dumped it down the line)
Cruz
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low-out, ball
P3 - SL, low-out, foul
P4 - SL, low-out, strike (swinging; good tilt)
Davis
P1 - SL, low, ball
P2 - 2S, outside, strike (looking)
P3 - SL, low, HR (straight away CF; SL was a spinner that caught too much of the plate)
Saltalamacchia
P1 - SL, low-in, ball
P2 - 2S, in, foul back
P3 - 2S, in, strike (looking)
P4 - SL, low-in, 1B (RF corner; again, SL spinning a bit and catching too much of the plate)
Andrus
P1 - SL, out, strike (swinging -- camera late coming back))
P2 - SL, in, foul back (camera late again)
P3 - 2S, middle, F9 (hit hard to right/center gap)
Inning Summary: 24 pich inning, 39 total. Bergesen was effective when he was hitting his spots, and ineffective when he wasn't. As we touched on in his first start, his pure stuff doesn't allow him to be imprecise. I'd like to see him mix in some more changeups the second time through the order -- I may have missed one or two due to the camera being late getting back to the pitch.
Third Inning
Kinsler
P1 - SL, middle, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, foul (back)
P3 - 4S, low-out, ball
P4 - 2S, middle, 4-3
Murphy
P1 - 2S, low, ball
P2 - 4S, low, ball
P3 - 2S, low, foul (1B)
P4 - 2S, out, foul (back)
P5 - 2S, out, ball
P6 - 4S, in, ball
Young
P1 - SL, low, ball
P2 - 2S, up, foul (back)
P3 - SL, low, E6
Blalock
P1 - 2S, outside, ball
P2 - 2S, outside, ball (not finishing; aiming outside)
P3 - 2S, low-out, 3-6
Byrd
P1 - 2S, inside, foul (back)
P2 - 2S, outside, 5-4
Inning Summary: Better inning for Bergesen, though he went back to relying primarily on his 2S to try and induce groundballs. Again, I'd like to see the change mixed in a bit. He doesn't look particularly confident in his slider today, so something to change pace would be good. Also, while he needs to work down to be successful, it would be good to change the hitter's eye-level and throw a 4S up a couple of times when he's ahead.
Fourth Inning
Cruz (I'd like to see him work in with the 2S)
P1 - SL, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - 4S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, out, 4-3 (soft groundball; did a good job working inside-out to get the roll-over)
Davis
P1 - 4S, low-in, ball
P2 - 2S, low-out, ball
P3 - 2S, low, foul (back)
P4 - 2S, out, F7
Saltalamacchia (I'd like to see him work down-out with the CH)
P1 - 2S, out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, low-out, single (CF)
Andrus
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low-in, foul (3B)
P3 - 2S, low-in, foul (back; 4S up-in would be nice)
P4 - 2S, in, foul (3B; SL in would be nice)
P5 - SL, low-out, ball
P6 - 4S, low-in, foul
P7 - 4S, up, single (CF; caught way too much of plate)
Kinsler
P1 - 2S, in, 5-4
Inning Summary: Bergy didn't look like he wanted to throw anything off-speed to Davis. Fortunately, he kept the ball down and got soft contact. It would have been nice to put Andrus away a little earlier, as the pitch count is rising. I'll keep saying he needs to show a different look (changeup down or slider in to righties, changeup away 4S up-in to lefties). I have him at 74 pitches through four.
Fifth Inning
Murphy
P1 - 2S, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - 2S, inside, ball
P3 - 2S, middle-down, HR (CF)
Young
P1 - 2S, in, 2B (LF/CF; and this is what happens when you aren't feeling your breaking ball and can't/won't go to a changeup)
Blalock
P1 - 4S, low-in, ball (velocity dropping on 4S)
P2 - SL, low-in, ball
P3 - CH, middle, foul (LF, linedrive)
P4 - 2S, low, ball
P5 - 2S, low-out, 1B (CF; too much of plate)
Byrd
P1 - SL, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - SL, low, strike (swinging)
P3 - SL, low, 1B (3B)
Cruz
P1 - SL, low-out, ball
P2 - 2S, low, 1B (3B; ball hit hard down the line, Wigginton stops but can't make the play)
Bergesen pulled.
Inning Summary: Stuff out over the plate and very little velocity differential. Bergesen looked measured by the Texas hitters.
Impressions from Start #2: Again, no real surprises. When he's spotting his pitches, he can be difficult to square-up on, but without that changeup and without an ability to change the hitter's eye-level, I just don't see him making it through Major League lineups two and three times. It certainly isn't enough to say he isn't ready to be up with the big club, but he needs to get that changeup working, and he needs to have more confidence up in the zone with his four-seamer. Hitters are just way too comfortable by their second at bat.
Final Line:
4 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 SO, 1 BB, 3 HR
88 pitches / 59 Strikes
________________________________________________
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)