We are probably painfully aware at this point that Nolan Reimold is beating up on pitchers in AAA. This has included two launched balls off of David Price, the esteemed No. 2 in BA's top prospects. He is batting 417/486/750 and is on pace to slug 50 home runs in a full season of AAA. His MLE OPS is 1027. This makes it difficult on Felix Pie. So far he has not performed with a line of 167/259/229. That is bad. Added to this, part of his charm was bringing above average defense to left field. He has just recently achieved average defensive value and it is arguable whether he will advance beyond that.
Now . . . your head might explode here. Pie has been unlucky. More after the jump.
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There are some basic rules of thumb you can apply to batted ball data. You look at a line and you will find that 0% of infield flies result in a hit, 22% of fly balls land for a hit, 28% of groundballs find holes through the infield, and 74% of line drives find a home in the outfield grass. Now, Felix has registered 2 infield flies, 13 fly balls, 12 grounders, and 8 line drives.
His hit rate so far has been 0% for infield flies, 15% for flies, 0% for ground balls, and 75% for line drives. See something off here? None of his grounders have found holes. He should have 4 ground ball hits. This would raise his batting average to .250 . . . his OBP to .327 . . . his slugging to .313. His OPS would be a whopping 640 as opposed to 488. Yeah, that is still pretty bad, but not as bad as we thought. Well, unless someone can come up with a good idea why his grounders do not make it through the infield? A line drive hitter typically hits hard grounders.
So, how much more rope do you all think he should have?
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I made this point in my blog so I thin I'll repeat it here. Through their first 38 games as regulars:
ReplyDeleteAdam Jones
.223 AVG, 31 SO, 7 BB, 2HR, .633 OPS
Nick Markakis
.204 AVG, 17 SO, 9 BB, 2 HR, .604 OPS
Luis Matos
.350 AVG, 30 SO, 11 BB, .916 OPS
Now, Pie hasn't even shown that kind of offensive porduction but it is worth mentioning that you can't tell a player from a month of play as a regular.
I still say give him until after the All-Star break. That give Reimold more time in AAA and gives the team a fair look at Pie.
I think Pie should get everyday reps through July. Reimold, if still raking, could be brought up and get ABs between DH and LF. If Pie is still disappointing he can have his role reduced to 4th OF.
ReplyDeleteBut what are the chances he doesn't sneak through waivers? I like Pie. I think he has a lot of talent. But maybe it's best to give Pie the axe while he isn't hitting at all so other clubs are less inclined to caryy them. He has a lot to learn, and it's probably best he learn it in the minors.
ReplyDeleteJust copied from my comparison of the O's stats to what I had projected at the start of the year:
ReplyDeleteFelix Pie:
Projected: .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA
Actual: .157/.246/.216, 1 HR, .221 wOBA
PrOPS: .256/.331/.388
Pie's defense hasn't been as advertised yet (it's only been about average in LF) but his bat hasn't been as bad as it's looked. A .194 BABIP despite a 23% line-drive rate will definitely not continue, and his increased walk rate (from 7.8% to 10.5%) and decreased strike-out rate (from 34.9% to 27.5%) are both good signs. He needs to be given plenty of at bats to work through this."
I'm with Heath and Nick.
I agree that he means plenty of at bats. Wouldn't he get more as the everyday player at Norfolk rather than the 4th OF in Baltimore?
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