I wanted to highlight this post by Tim Anderson of Birds Watcher, not really for praise and certainly not for ridicule but to frame a larger concept I wanted to delve into: Nick Markakis, Leadoff Hitter.
Tim wrote an article when Brian Roberts was sidelined with neck spasms and wondered who would/could lead off in his absence. A very good question.
Last season the answer would have been easy – Corey Patterson. His speed and hot bat at the plate was ideal for the lead-off position.
While this would not have been true most of the time, Patterson, at least early in the season, did a decent job in that role. The Orioles called him up on May 12th and through the end of June was posting a line of .286/.337/.409. Considering the fact that Oriole leadoff hitters had only been getting on base at a sub-.300 clip before that, Patterson was a welcome surprise.
But considering the fact that Patterson has a career .292 OBP and that he finished the 2010 season with a .315 OBP, he's not normally suited for that role.
Pie would also have been a good option, batting lead-off in eight games for the O’s in 2010. However, with the acquisitions of Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, Felix Pie is sentenced to a bench role in 2011.
True, Pie will probably not be a full time player in 2011. But he's got a .305 career OBP and it's not about to get better. Why does Tim think he would be a good leadoff hitter? Why do I think he won't? Let's try to define the qualifications for a competent major league leadoff hitter.
Earl Weaver on leadoff hitters:
The leadoff hitter should be someone with a high on-base percentage, a guy who draws seventy or more walks and hits for a high average...The first inning is the only time a manager is given the chance to set up the batting order exactly the way he wants it. After that, it's rare for the leadoff hitter to start an inning. My goal is to have as many players on base as possible when the number-four hitter comes to bat...I like to get my best on-base men in the first three spots inthe order.
Bill James:
One player--a leadoff hitter, no less--said a few years ago that if he wanted to walk he'd have been a mailman. Common sense would suggest that the response considered appropriate to such a comment would be to yank the player aside and say, 'Look, you yoyo, you're not out there trying to prove to girls in the bleachers what a big strong hitter you are. We're trying to win ballgames here. You're expected to help.'
First and foremost, getting on base is the most important skill a leadoff hitter can possess and by a wide margin. All other skills are icing on the cake.
For me, a leadoff hitter should have the following attributes, in this order.
1) Good On Base Percentage - hits for average and walks regularly
2) Good Baserunner - speed is a plus but a smart baserunner can go from 1st to 3rd on a single more often than a dumb one with speed
3) Power - leading off a game with a double or homer can be a potent weapon
4) Good Basestealer - they can pile up the bases...but more importantly, don't often get caught.
So it starts with OBP and neither Patterson nor Pie have it.
Center fielder Adam Jones lead-off 15 games for the O’s in 2010 and struggled mightily. He hit .188 with a .443 OPS and only two extra base hits, both doubles.
This is true. Jones has some pop but is not a very good baserunner, not a good base stealer and then there's that .319 career OBP to contend with.
The only logical option for lead-off would be the man filling in for Roberts at second – Robert Andino. Andino played well in 16 games last season, collecting a .295 average, a .333 OBP, and driving in six runs. Andino is not the best hitter and that certainly hurts the Orioles offensively, but he is the best option for the team.
No. Not by a long shot.
Those 16 games from 2010 aside (actually, including them), Andino has a career .275 OBP in the majors. And only a .309 OBP in the minors. There would be fewer worse options on the roster than Andino. Anyone can be respectable for 16 games.
Who else is there?
Nick Markakis? Long shot.
We'll come back to Nick...
J.J. Hardy? Not quite.
Mark Reynolds? No.
A .323 and .334 career OBP respectively. Better options than Andino but not ideal.
Luke Scott? Absolutely not.
Why "absolutely not", I wonder? Scott has a career .354 OBP. He's not a base stealer but is a decent enough base runner. And he definitely has some power
The problem is, Tim never states exactly what he's looking for in a leadoff man. I would assume, given those who he favors and who he dismisses, he is looking for a speedy guy, preferably a guy who can steal bases and bunt for hits. But he is undervaluing OBP.
Now back to the "long shot". Markakis possesses a .368 career OBP. Check. He's a good base runner and the Bill James Handbook has backed that up. Check. While he has never developed the home run power that was hoped for, Nick has doubles power to the gap and double-digit homer power. Check. Not a great base stealer but does choose his spots well with a 72% success rate over his career. Half a check.
Markakis is so obvious a choice to move into the leadoff spot in Roberts' absence that it is amazing that his name never comes up in that capacity. He is still seen as more of a middle-of-the-order type of bat, so much so that everyone ignores his top-of-the-order skillset.
So if Roberts went down again, I would move Nick to the leadoff spot and probably slide Scott in at #2 ahead of Derrek Lee, Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds.
And Nick would make a hell of a leadoff hitter. It's time to recognize his skills. After all, Brian Roberts won't be around forever.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
The Crystal Ball 2011: Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman
Jeremy Guthrie, Duchscherer (if healthy) and Brian Matusz are locks for the rotation. Bergesen is probably staying...he's not great but fairly reliable. So Tillman and Arrieta are dueling for one spot.
Some point to Arrieta's September as proof that he has turned a corner and should be the front runner for the final spot in the rotation. But while the numbers are great (2-1, 2.60 ERA, 13 K, 2 BB) but it was only over 17 innings. But over the course of the season, he walked nearly as many as he struck out. Not a good recipe for a young pitcher to make a leap forward.
Speaking of the numbers...
IP K BB HR ERA FIP WHIP Arrieta 100.1 52 48 9 4.66 4.76 1.535 Tillman 53.2 31 31 9 5.87 5.89 1.528
Yeah...still doesn't look great for Tillman here.
But it seems to me that Tillman got more "swings and misses" with his stuff last season. So let's compare with the data from Fangraphs. O-Swing is swings outside the strike zone, Z-Swing is swings in the strike zone. Swing is total swing percentage, F-Strike is first pitch strikes and SWStr is swinging strikes.
O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% F-Strike% SwStr% Tillman 25.2% 66.0% 43.2% 50.0% 6.3% Arrieta 29.0% 61.6% 43.6% 54.1% 5.7%
I thought Tillman would have had a bit more of an advantage here but they are pretty much even. Which is disappointing. I would have expected a bit more swinging strikes from Tillman's stuff than Arrieta's but up to this point, they are in a dead heat.
If I had to choose, I still like Tillman's upside better than Arrieta's but they are very similar at this point. This spring, I'd watch the strikeouts and walks for both of these guys very carefully. Homers will happen in Florida, ERAs and Wins will fluctuate with the defense but the walks and strikeouts will be the best bellwether for their competition in Sarasota. And it starts tomorrow when Tillman takes the mound against the Phillies.
For more general ramblings about the Baltimore Orioles, go check out Dempsey's Army...
Friday, February 25, 2011
Many Microscpes Examining the Yankee Rotation
As spring training gets into full swing, you can expect there to be a serious focus on the Yankees. After all, they have the largest fan base, a rabid fan base that demands constant coverage, even when there isn't much to cover.
This season, there is little to settle on the Yankee roster in spring training. It's a veteran team and they are pretty much set at every position. Except their 4th and 5th starters. So there are a bunch of hurlers in camp. Thanks goodness...everyone looks great!
On the main field, it’s Freddy Garcia. On the back field, it’s Bartolo Colon. I chose the back field, if only out of curiosity. I had no idea what to expect, but I’ll say this.
I thought Colon looked pretty good.
Russel Martin took him deep to left, but Colon seemed to have legitimate zip on his fastball. When he missed, he seemed to miss low. That’s just an observation from the sideline, and I could be completely wrong, but I came away feeling like Colon was more legitimate than I originally thought.
*****
“(Freddy Garcia) looked pretty good to me,” Girardi said. “As I’ve said all along, Freddy knows how to pitch, and he knows how to compete. He knows what he has to do to get ready. He threw a lot of strikes and he mixed his pitches..."
*****
(Larry Rothschild) On Dellin Betances: “He’s got a real good changeup, he can spin the ball, and he’s a big kid that has a pretty good feel for delivery for that big a kid. It usually takes taller kids a little bit longer, but he’s pretty good. He’s got three pitches, it’s just a matter of being able to repeat a lot. He’s certainly got the makeup. I don’t think he scares. He’s got a look that’s pretty intense.”
I don't know what you can tell from the first week of camp from a bunch of guys throwing batting practice but I defy you to find a pitcher in Yankee camp that looked bad in the LoHud.com Yankee coverage. Although, I would say that anyone giving up a homer Russell Martin can't be pleased, no matter when it happens.
Seemingly, the further away you are from the big leagues, the more the beat writers want to create a sense that they are a dark horse candidate for a rotation spot.
From NJ.com:
The men who will determine his future watched closely from behind their sunglasses, though none of it seemed to bother Yankees pitching prospect Andrew Brackman as he threw a batting practice session today...
But Brackman, 25, pitched as if none of them were watching, displaying a much-refined delivery and improved command. The highly touted prospect, who is considered a longshot in the competition for a spot in the Yankees rotation, may have improved his odds with his well-timed performance.
More gravitas was never assigned to BP session in the history of baseball.
You would expect a little of this from the beat writers though. The fans are craving information and these guys have to dig up a story somewhere. It's odd and bit absurd but you can understand where it comes from.
But the national baseball media...
Et tu, Buster?
The international sign for good pitch is a catcher jabbing his glove hand toward the mound, and time and again on Sunday morning, a glove was aimed at Manuel Banuelos, a left-hander who is in the Yankees' camp as a non-roster invitee and had his turn at throwing batting practice to hitters.
Banuelos doesn't turn 20 for a few weeks, yet he already has a sharp breaking ball that can freeze left-handed hitters and a changeup that fades away from right-handers...
Which is important, because while the Yankees will look for solutions all over the place this summer -- whether Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon or Mark Prior, or from the yet-to-be identified veteran pitcher they will inevitably target -- they will also need some help from their farm system...
And when can Banuelos, who seems to have the stuff that would make him a good late-season reliever? Maybe Dellin Betances, regarded as the best of the Yankees' pitching prospects, will be able to help at some point, despite having never thrown a pitch above Class A....
So they don't need the No. 4 and No. 5 starters to be great; the Yankees just need them to be competitive, to hang in there, and to hold the fort for what should, again, be a very strong offense. They just don't know what names will be attached to the solutions -- perhaps someone like Manuel Banuelos.
Manny Banuelos. Has there ever been so much ink spilled in a national piece for an A-ball pitcher from Mexico? I mean...really? Banuelos for the 2011 Yankee rotation? That's quite a stretch.
I used to think the media scrutiny and pressure for Yankee players was overstated. I'm not sure I feel that way anymore...
This season, there is little to settle on the Yankee roster in spring training. It's a veteran team and they are pretty much set at every position. Except their 4th and 5th starters. So there are a bunch of hurlers in camp. Thanks goodness...everyone looks great!
On the main field, it’s Freddy Garcia. On the back field, it’s Bartolo Colon. I chose the back field, if only out of curiosity. I had no idea what to expect, but I’ll say this.
I thought Colon looked pretty good.
Russel Martin took him deep to left, but Colon seemed to have legitimate zip on his fastball. When he missed, he seemed to miss low. That’s just an observation from the sideline, and I could be completely wrong, but I came away feeling like Colon was more legitimate than I originally thought.
*****
“(Freddy Garcia) looked pretty good to me,” Girardi said. “As I’ve said all along, Freddy knows how to pitch, and he knows how to compete. He knows what he has to do to get ready. He threw a lot of strikes and he mixed his pitches..."
*****
(Larry Rothschild) On Dellin Betances: “He’s got a real good changeup, he can spin the ball, and he’s a big kid that has a pretty good feel for delivery for that big a kid. It usually takes taller kids a little bit longer, but he’s pretty good. He’s got three pitches, it’s just a matter of being able to repeat a lot. He’s certainly got the makeup. I don’t think he scares. He’s got a look that’s pretty intense.”
I don't know what you can tell from the first week of camp from a bunch of guys throwing batting practice but I defy you to find a pitcher in Yankee camp that looked bad in the LoHud.com Yankee coverage. Although, I would say that anyone giving up a homer Russell Martin can't be pleased, no matter when it happens.
Seemingly, the further away you are from the big leagues, the more the beat writers want to create a sense that they are a dark horse candidate for a rotation spot.
From NJ.com:
The men who will determine his future watched closely from behind their sunglasses, though none of it seemed to bother Yankees pitching prospect Andrew Brackman as he threw a batting practice session today...
But Brackman, 25, pitched as if none of them were watching, displaying a much-refined delivery and improved command. The highly touted prospect, who is considered a longshot in the competition for a spot in the Yankees rotation, may have improved his odds with his well-timed performance.
More gravitas was never assigned to BP session in the history of baseball.
You would expect a little of this from the beat writers though. The fans are craving information and these guys have to dig up a story somewhere. It's odd and bit absurd but you can understand where it comes from.
But the national baseball media...
Et tu, Buster?
The international sign for good pitch is a catcher jabbing his glove hand toward the mound, and time and again on Sunday morning, a glove was aimed at Manuel Banuelos, a left-hander who is in the Yankees' camp as a non-roster invitee and had his turn at throwing batting practice to hitters.
Banuelos doesn't turn 20 for a few weeks, yet he already has a sharp breaking ball that can freeze left-handed hitters and a changeup that fades away from right-handers...
Which is important, because while the Yankees will look for solutions all over the place this summer -- whether Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon or Mark Prior, or from the yet-to-be identified veteran pitcher they will inevitably target -- they will also need some help from their farm system...
And when can Banuelos, who seems to have the stuff that would make him a good late-season reliever? Maybe Dellin Betances, regarded as the best of the Yankees' pitching prospects, will be able to help at some point, despite having never thrown a pitch above Class A....
So they don't need the No. 4 and No. 5 starters to be great; the Yankees just need them to be competitive, to hang in there, and to hold the fort for what should, again, be a very strong offense. They just don't know what names will be attached to the solutions -- perhaps someone like Manuel Banuelos.
Manny Banuelos. Has there ever been so much ink spilled in a national piece for an A-ball pitcher from Mexico? I mean...really? Banuelos for the 2011 Yankee rotation? That's quite a stretch.
I used to think the media scrutiny and pressure for Yankee players was overstated. I'm not sure I feel that way anymore...
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Spring Training Moods
Hats off to Karl Menton Ferron and the video team at The Baltimore Sun for the excellent video they are putting up at BaltimoreSun.com as they cover Spring Training for the Orioles. What makes it excellent? First, it looks great. It's video for sure but looks like it's shot on film and the colors are warm and lush...just beautifully shot and edited. Second, they are doing, for lack of a better term, "mood pieces" for Spring Trianing in addition to interviews and more informational video posts. They capture the sounds and feel of Spring Training so well as to make you forget the winter that still lurks outside your window. This is sports photojournalism (vid-journalism) done right. Bravo.
Check them out here. I've embedded three here to give you a feel.
For more general rambling about the Baltimore Orioles, go check out Dempsey's Army...
Check them out here. I've embedded three here to give you a feel.
For more general rambling about the Baltimore Orioles, go check out Dempsey's Army...
Monday, February 21, 2011
2011 Baltimore Oriole Projections - My Take (Kind Of)
Now that spring training has started and the roster is a bit more projectable, I figured it was time to formulate a win projection for the 2011 version of the team. Well, I kind of formulated it. I'm using the WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore.
Here's the work but before you look, the ground rules and caveats:
* I used Marcel Projections and I grabbed those from FanGraphs. I stuck to those pretty tightly.
* Playing time was adjusted a bit from Marcel, usually granting a bit more than less to fill in the gaps.
* I gave Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters some above average defensive value scores and a slight bump to Derrek Lee. Jake Fox, Brian Roberts and Josh Bell got defensive demerits. All others were neutral.
* Only Roberts got an adjustment for baserunning.
* I assigned all batters their exact Marcel projections with three exceptions. I selected Adam Jones as my breakthrough player for 2011. I bumped him up from a .333 to a .345 wOBA (bascially a .762 OPS to a .803 OPS). It a nice jump but not a crazy one. I bumped Nick Markakis from a .353 to a .356 wOBA (an .807 OPS to roughly an .820 OPS) and I knocked Brandon Snyder's .330 wOBA down the .300.
* I used FIP for the ERA projections.
* Since I used FIP, I adjusted Jeremy Guthrie's ERA projection down by a quarter run. All other pitchers kept their Marcel projections. Except...
* I put Jake Arrieta's name on Chris Tillman's projection and vice versa. Arrieta's projection was better but I still think Tillman can miss more bats than he showed last season. So I gave Tillman the better stats even though the combined projection remains the same.
All that gives us a Win Talent of 79.8 wins which we can round up to 80.
I don't think any of these numbers I plugged in are either crazy or overly optimistic. One thing I will say is that this team is pretty thin. Any significant injury to, say, Guthrie or Matusz on the pitching side or Markakis or Scott on the hitting side throws all of this out of whack and spiraling out of control.
But with a little luck and a couple of young guys taking steps forward (even if Jones doesn't), this team could (can't believe I'm going to say it) actually win this year. I am not alone. PECOTA has the Orioles winning 82 games in 2011.
And if the young guys keep getting their starts and at bats in the process, all the better.
For more general rambling about the Baltimore Orioles, go check out Dempsey's Army...
Here's the work but before you look, the ground rules and caveats:
* I used Marcel Projections and I grabbed those from FanGraphs. I stuck to those pretty tightly.
* Playing time was adjusted a bit from Marcel, usually granting a bit more than less to fill in the gaps.
* I gave Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters some above average defensive value scores and a slight bump to Derrek Lee. Jake Fox, Brian Roberts and Josh Bell got defensive demerits. All others were neutral.
* Only Roberts got an adjustment for baserunning.
* I assigned all batters their exact Marcel projections with three exceptions. I selected Adam Jones as my breakthrough player for 2011. I bumped him up from a .333 to a .345 wOBA (bascially a .762 OPS to a .803 OPS). It a nice jump but not a crazy one. I bumped Nick Markakis from a .353 to a .356 wOBA (an .807 OPS to roughly an .820 OPS) and I knocked Brandon Snyder's .330 wOBA down the .300.
* I used FIP for the ERA projections.
* Since I used FIP, I adjusted Jeremy Guthrie's ERA projection down by a quarter run. All other pitchers kept their Marcel projections. Except...
* I put Jake Arrieta's name on Chris Tillman's projection and vice versa. Arrieta's projection was better but I still think Tillman can miss more bats than he showed last season. So I gave Tillman the better stats even though the combined projection remains the same.
All that gives us a Win Talent of 79.8 wins which we can round up to 80.
I don't think any of these numbers I plugged in are either crazy or overly optimistic. One thing I will say is that this team is pretty thin. Any significant injury to, say, Guthrie or Matusz on the pitching side or Markakis or Scott on the hitting side throws all of this out of whack and spiraling out of control.
But with a little luck and a couple of young guys taking steps forward (even if Jones doesn't), this team could (can't believe I'm going to say it) actually win this year. I am not alone. PECOTA has the Orioles winning 82 games in 2011.
And if the young guys keep getting their starts and at bats in the process, all the better.
For more general rambling about the Baltimore Orioles, go check out Dempsey's Army...
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