Keeping with the theme from this morning, I'd like to look at the other big contract the O's handed out this off-season; the 6 year, $66 M deal given to Nick Markakis.
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I copied most of this from my post at the time of the signing:
"I've lost count of the number of times I've suggested that the Orioles need to sign Nick Markakis long-term. With Nick going into his first year of arbitration, the O's have locked him up to a six year $66.1 M deal, including some incentives and a limited no-trade clause. No word of any team options, but I won't be too nit-picky.
Right now I've got Nick worth a monster 5.5 Wins Above Replacement next year (3.65 with the bat, 0.50 with the glove, 2.50 for the replacement level, -0.75 for the position adjustment, and pro-rated to 650 PA). And, though it's not close to being finalized yet, the feedback I've gotten on my initial projection of .301/.401/.493 is that it's too low. Assuming we don't project him to be even more awesome, Nick should be worth about $25.1 M next year (on the free agent market).
For arbitration, players tend to get 40%, 60%, and 80% of the free market value in successive years. That means the team "should" pay him about $161 M for those six years, assuming he stays at those 5.5 WAR every year and there's 10% salary inflation annually.
That's why I've said that no matter what contract Nick would be signed to, he'd still be a bargain. The difference between $64 M and $66 M (or whatever) isn't nearly as important as actually getting the deal done. The guy is a championship caliber player.
Needless to say, I'm really really happy about this."
Most of the professional projection systems don't have Nick rated as highly for 2009.
CHONE - .299/.382/.474
Marcel - .299/.378/.473
Oliver - .292/.364/.368
ZiPS - .294/.382/.497
PECOTA - .286/.368/.466
A year more the like the one above would drop about a full win from Markakis' value. Then if one assumes that he won't continue at that level and will miss playing time in the future, this takes away even more value. Even given these factors (which it seems are the general consensus, to the point that the contract discussions on non-Oriole sites project Nick to be worth slightly less in 2009 than he was in 2007 and only about $65-70 M for the six years), it would take a Ben Grieve like fall-off for the O's to not come out ahead.
Count me on the side that says Nick will be the cornerstone of Orioles teams for the next six years.
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http://camdendepot.com/analysis_extend_markakis.html
ReplyDeleteYeah, last May I pegged him at 66MM.
This is the conclusion I wrote then:
It is understandable why the Orioles might be reluctant to secure Markakis for the long term. If he falters it be a costly mistake (about 50 MM). If he stays the same as he is now, he basically get what he would have gotten anyway. If he breaks out . . . then he will cost a lot of money and years. That is basically what it comes down to. If you are sure that he is going to be a premium player, then you should lock him up in order to maximize your cash efficiency for other players on your roster. Ideally, the only time you pay a premium is when you bring players into your organization via free agency.
I think signing Markakis should be a priority and it will be fine to lock him in for 6 years at 66.01 MM. Perhaps a bit smarter of a contract would grant him 4 years at 40 MM and 2 team options years for 13.005 MM a piece. That way, he would still get a great deal of value for his first 4 seasons of the contract and the team would have an out if he completely crashes. I think Nick is not a high risk player. As opposed to the previous players mentioned (i.e., Craig Worthington, Ben Grieve) is not someone who relies on two tools. Markakis has plus ability in all skills and I think that makes him an easy one to bet on. Of course, this assumes Nick wants an extension. He certainly wants to be paid more, but I am not sure he wants to be lock in long-term. If he buys into the hype (Rob Neyer predicted that over the next 5 years he would be the best RF in the game), then he would be foolish to sign long term. Time will tell.
Though perhaps the biggest lesson is the savings attributed to developing young talent. Looking at Nick Markakis' 75th percentile projection, what we see is that over the next 6 years is that he could earn 103 MM if he goes the arbitration and free agency route. In turn, to get that much production off the free market, it would cost 157 MM. Even with respect to the average RF, you get a savings of 22 MM over 6 years. This is probably the lesson we have learned over the last decade or so: 0-3 year players are worth a lot of money. So, the next time you get excited by your team acquiring an established player (i.e., Bedard) for a collection of prospects (i.e. Adam Jones, Chris Tillman) . . . remember that with the extra 20-30% savings your team may be making, you can extend your own guys or pay the premium for the specific free agent talent to get you over the hump.
I remember reading that back then, but thinking that PECOTA is always low on him anyway. Your analysis was solid obviously, but the underlying data wasn't the best and his defense was assumed to be average (fair, at the time) instead of a slight plus (mostly from his arm). I don't have a BP account so I don't know if their long-term projections have changed much, but judging from their 2009 line it doesn't look like it.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think it wound up undervaluing him. His defense probably puts him up a win more than the average right fielder. His range is nothing special, but his arm is. Hitting-wise, he took a little step, but he has not broken out.
ReplyDeleteNice job to differentiate Markakis from Ben Grieve and the like. Markakis is as well-rounded at the plate than any Oriole I've seen since...well, I don't know...Ken Singleton? The defense makes him the total package.
ReplyDeleteI'm sticking with my Enos Slaughter theory...he just keeps getting better until he hits 29 and levels off. I guessing an OPS+ of 145 this season.
Hey guys, since these projections are based on age and past performance, why don't they have his numbers increasing since he is only now hitting his mid 20s?
ReplyDeleteYeah, that is what I am wondering about Markakis' projections. Other players see improvement on their projections, but not Markakis. I'm not sure.
ReplyDeleteHeath, I think you're the first person I saw make that Enos Slaughter comp really explicitly, and I've totally jumped on that bandwagon since then.
ReplyDeleteI think that most systems see his high batting average on balls in play and big break-out in walk-rate, and assume they'll regress towards the mean. I think that they show him turning one of his best tools (his batting eye) into a skill on the field (OBP). If David DeJesus suddenly saw his OBP shoot up 40 points I'd probably be a little suspicious of that too. If he puts up another .300/.400/.490 season then the projections for 2010 should be a lot better.
ReplyDeleteI've always thought more like a right field version of Ellis Burks. Eh. Enos Slaughter is the number one comp on ref's similarity score.
ReplyDeleteYeah, his last two seasons did not help the projections much as he turned in two similar seasons without the uptick one would expect prior to a breakout. His secondary power did not seem on the verge of a breakout last year though he did see a slight increase in doubles.
I'm no scout, but I think that given his power to all fields (4 HR to left and 10 to center) he might see an increase in power once he learns when to pull the ball, as I seem remember Tony Gwynn did later in his career.
ReplyDeleteI agree with what everyone has said so far -- good talk. I think lots of people forget the raw power he displayed in the minors. Not manifested in numbers, but the actual shots he launched when he centered the ball against lesser pitching.
ReplyDeleteI think as he faced more advanced pitching, he discovered his best bet is to drive the ball where it's thrown. His approach seems to indicate he's just as a happy with a double to the left/center gap as he his turning on a middle-in fastball. I think you'll see lots of doubles, and perhaps he'll have an '05 Roberts run where the doubles turn to homers for a period.
The leverage in his swing says homeruns, but his approach says wear-out the gaps and punish mistakes. At least, that's what I see.
Maybe, though I think if he begins pulling the ball, you will see his average drop about 5-10%. I think the talk of him being a 30-30 guy was premature. I don't think he will have the speed to accomplish that without getting thrown out a lot. It is weird though that his homerun rate has been steady his whole career. No difference at all with respect to his fly balls. His only significant development has been pitch ID. His walk rate came last year from essentially refusing to swing at pitches outside of the zone. He cut down swinging at pitches outside of the zone 20% in one year. I think that is a skill.
ReplyDeleteThat's sort of what I was getting at, Jon. Work the count and get a pitch to square-up on. What makes Markakis potentially one of the better hitters around is his ability to square-up in those instances where the pitcher makes a great pitch, using the whole field.
ReplyDeleteI never did understand that 30-30 stuff. He's an OK baserunner, but not all that fast or a particularly great base-stealer. Roberts with Nick's speed could still steal 30, but Nick with Roberts' speed probably wouldn't go much past 20. When he stole 18 in '07 I seem to recall several of those being on the back-end of double steals with Brian taking third.
ReplyDeleteI've seen Markakis whiff on a few of his homerun swings. He doesn't unleash it very often, but you've probably all seen a few of those swings. They're distinct, for sure. His avg. would surely go down if he were to let 'er rip more often, unless he learns when to do so more accurately.
ReplyDeleteFor Jon:
ReplyDeleteYeah, I liked the Ellis Burks comp too except that I don't think he's ever going to develop that homerun stroke that Burks had nor do I think that Burks ever developed the kind of control of the strike zone that Markakis already displays.
While Markakis did not see an uptick in traditional stats (BA, HR, 2B) he has seen significant movement in OBP and SLG since his rookie year. His OPS+ has progressed from 106, 121, 134 over the past three seasons. I think he is ready for a breakout. Will breakout mean .310 with 30 HR? I don't think so but it may be .325, 25 HR, with an OPS over .900.
Given his patience and willingness to hit to all fields, I see steady progress season over season for the next few. He's a line drive guy, hitting doubles in the gap is more his game than jacking homers but that power could increase to 30+ HR power...I just don't think that's the kind of player he is.