The Baltimore Orioles will possibly field one of the best outfield defenses in baseball in 2009. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already have good track records as superior defenders and Felix Pie, a centerfielder in Chicago, should be a superior fielder in left. On a team that is likely to lose more than is wins for the 12th straight season, watching those three run down flies and gun down runners at the plate should be one of the bright spots of 2009.
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How good will they be? I figured I'd look at some of the best defensive trios of the last few years and see where they stack up. I used UZR/150 ratings from FanGraphs.com so I oculd only look at the last 8 seasons. I had two requirements for selecting the trios; 1) Each fielder has to play at least 800 innings in the field and 2) Each fielder had to have a positive UZR/150. I didn't want to have outfields composed of two superior fielders and one plodding slugger. Not the aim of this post.
I included the top 6, for reasons that will become obvious...
6. 2008 Baltimore Orioles
UZR/150
N. Markakis 9.3
A. Jones 12.2
L. Scott 6.6
Total 28.1
That's right, even with the much-maligned glove of Luke Scott in left, the 2008 version of the Orioles outfiled is one of the top 6 in baseball in the last few years. Scott may not look pretty in left but he gets the job done. Markakis adds a superior arm and Jones' arm is well above average too.
5. 2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
UZR/150
C. Crawford 22.1
J. Cruz, Jr. 6.9
R. Baldelli 3.6
Total 32.6
Most of this score is provided by Crawford and his amazing range but Cruz was no slouch in center and Baldelli's arm provided good value in right.
4. 2006 Atlanta Braves
UZR/150
R. Langerhans 15.4
And. Jones 14.6
J. Francouer 5.8
Total 35.8
All very well-rounded fielders but only Francouer displaied a plus arm. All are now clinging to the major leaque carrers nearly three years later. I saw this outfield in person several times that season and they were pretty impressive and a lot of fun to watch.
3. 2003 Philadelphia Phillies
UZR/150
P. Burrell 6.5
M. Byrd 13.5
B. Abreu 16.1
Total 36.1
Yes, only five years ago, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu were plus defenders. Burrell was not too rangy but did not embarrass himself. Byrd and Abreu were both good all-around fielders.
2. 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
UZR/150
R. Johnson 23.9
A. Rios 12.8
V. Wells 7.2
Total 43.9
Thus trio was the only one to appear multiple times, each posting above-average UZR/150's from 2004-2006. The best defensive outfield of the new century so far.
1. 2004 Chicago Cubs
UZR/150
C. Patterson 33.8
S. Sosa 11.1
M. Alou 4.6
Total 49.5
A young, rangy Corey Patterson, Sammy Sosa in his prime and an aging Moises Alou made for an unlikely candidate for the top of this list. But here they are, buoyed by Patterson's amazing range in center and the surprising range of Sosa and Alou.
Can this year's trio of Markakis, Pie and Jones rank among the great outfields of this decade? A lot will depend on Pie's learning curve in left and Jones' health in center. If Pie masters left and Jones stays healthy, they could certainly do so.
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I have the Dewan numbers here (http://sabernomics.com/sabernomics/FieldingBibleVII_Excerpt.pdf).
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think Luke Scott was unfairly hit with some criticism last year. His arm is not special and he does not have great range, but he is able to cleanly field the position and that helps over the long run.
That said, Pie is better defensively, but is not as clean. I wonder how much his range will be offset by Jones'. The outfield will surely be a help to our strange bounty of fly ball pitchers.
"The outfield will surely be a help to our strange bounty of fly ball pitchers."
ReplyDeleteBased on your comments from last week about flyball pitchers, outfield defense and the home run rate in Camden Yards, I've been trying to find a good way to figure out how many extra balls an outfield would have to convert into outs to offset the extra homers a flyball pitching staff would produce. I know I've seen run values assigned to these events somewhere. If anyone has an idea of where to find that information let me know.
Yeah, I was going to do that at some point, but, eh, work.
ReplyDeleteGB 0.053
OF FB 0.046
IF FB -0.1
HR 1.4
~10% of flyballs are homeruns. i forget what camden's park factor for HR is.
Oh and other numbers that might help:
ReplyDeleteFB OF avg .135
FB IF avg .04
GB avg .230
"Yeah, I was going to do that at some point, but, eh, work."
ReplyDeleteLikewise...
Just a back of the envelope calculation . . . I am getting this.
ReplyDeleteA plus defense (saves 20 runs over average) makes up for about a 4-5% difference in gb rates. For instance, a plus D with a staff of 35% GB guys is equivalent to a group of 40% GB guys with an average defense. Likewise, if you think a team is capable of saving 40 runs . . . a 35% staff with good of d is equivalent to a 45% staff. Of course, these numbers shrink as a team's GB rate increases.
"Yeah, I was going to do that at some point, but, eh, work."
ReplyDeleteMake that three.
As for the back of the envelope calculations, does plus defense indicate a 20 run above average OF and an average IF?
The O's pitchers had a 44% GB rate last year, so it looks like the 20 runs saved (and I wouldn't be comfortable going above that for the entire team - that likely includes the Luis Montanez's of the world) would make it OK for their GB% to drop maybe to around 40% (which would have been the lowest in the league last year).
So I would say that the effects of the whole GB to FB staff thing is likely not very significant, and that even the level of that change (GB->FB) won't be very large.
Seattle with Endy Chavez (15.5 UZR/150 in OF career), Franklin Gutierrez (21.7 UZR/150 in OF career), and Ichiro! (9.3 UZR/150 in OF career) total 46.1. They'll probably have the best OF defense in the majors next year when those three are out there. When they have their backups (Wlad Balentin or Griffey Jr.) out though, vs. Luke Scott as the O's back-up, then Baltimore may have the top four full-time type guys.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I assumed an average infield. It seems that fly balls are just so catchable to begin with that increasing outfield defense does not seem to change much. I assume that line drive success would not change much as line drives are basically if they are hit at you or not. To some extent you'll get some issue with multiple bases, but I am not sure of a useful way to calculate that.
ReplyDeleteThe O's infield will likely be slightly below average overall, so that means flyballs are a little more valuable. Still, making this a purposeful strategy at Camden Yards is probably not the best idea (and I imagine it's largely coincidental).
ReplyDeleteNo, the ability of the infield has nothing to do with the value of fly balls.
ReplyDeleteI meant turning groundballs into flyballs, not the value of an individual flyball. If the IF was really, really good then it would be less valuable to the team to trade GB for FB. Since the IF is not so good, there is an additional (small) incentive to give them less chances. Is that not accurate?
ReplyDeleteOk, I misunderstood. Yeah, if the infield is poor . . . it might be beneficial to direct pitches as flyballs. Of course, it is somewhat inefficient.
ReplyDeleteI was just talking about theoretical team-building (mostly relating to the types of pitchers). I think for most - if not all - teams, and especially one that plays in a homer friendly ballpark, it doesn't make sense to specifically go after flyball pitchers (all else being equal) just because the outfield defense is better than the infield defense. I think we're generally in agreement about what's going on.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, it'll be nice watching Pie, Jones, and Markakis track down balls in the outfield this year.