The last post on outfield defense devolved into a discussion of the O's pitching staff construction, so maybe a more direct look at that is warranted.
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I don't think anyone is under the illusion that the Orioles are going to have a very good pitching staff - 2009 is a transition year before the Big Three (who still need a better nickname) and the other assorted minor-league starters begin to make their mark on the big club.
I've been trying to project the pitchers for the coming season, but the level of uncertainty is pretty staggering - question-marks abound.
Guthrie: Clearly the team's best starter, but can he keep putting up good ERAs despite merely OK peripherals? Other pitchers have managed it, but will Guts?
Uehara: Even though other teams didn't even see him as a starter, he's the O's #2. How well will he transition to the US, and especially the AL East?
Hill: Health? Control?
A whole host of other guys, including Hayden Penn (not much success since his call-up to the majors at a young age), Chris Waters (#5 starter, maybe), Radhames Liz (who's already been demoted to the pen), David Pauley (knocked around in Spring Training), Danys Baez (bad last time he was in the majors, as a reliever), Matt Albers (recovering from labrum injury), Troy Patton (recovering from labrum injury, and maybe not major league ready), Matt Hendrickson (not very good - better role is swing-man), Adam Eaton (not particularly good in recent years), Brad Bergesen (hasn't pitched at AAA and doesn't have the best stuff), Brian Bass (can't go deep in games).
I'm not even really asking about the quality of the innings - I'm just curious who's going to provide them.
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Guthrie 200
ReplyDeleteUehara 150
Hill 100
Penn 80
Baez 80
Hendrikson 40
Pauly 20
Bergesen 80
Parrish 20
Waters 40
Bass 40
Hennessey 40
Liz 10
I think Jon is probably pretty close. I think it's possible you see Matusz with 10-18 IP in September, but there's no way to tell how BAL will handle him.
ReplyDeleteSo Eaton is a goner but Pauley gets a brief opportunity? I don't know. I originally had them both in my OD roster, but now I'm not sure. Neither has really impressed in ST, but Pauley seems to be the shakiest. He could be headed to the waiver wire. Eaton may be the beneficiary of the ST injury bug. No?
ReplyDeleteAlso, I'm thinking Liz gets more than 10 innings, hopefully mostly in relief.
"Also, I'm thinking Liz gets more than 10 innings, hopefully mostly in relief." I think we're talking about the rotation here, though given the recent comments by the team I think mostly in relief will be correct.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the actual innings predictions, though I wasn't necessarily going for that - more a discussion about how you all would work with the collection of arms that the team has assembled.
In any case, I don't think expecting Guthrie to pitch 200 innings is realistic. He may do it (he was only 9.3 innings short last year) but I'd hesitate in saying a career high will happen given the injury risk inherent in all pitchers. Otherwise, we're largely in agreement except for Baez (who I can't imagine as a starter, even though he was one earlier in his career) and Bergesen (who I still don't see being up very early in the year).
I would also be surprised to see Matusz this year - especially given how cautious the team has been with their pitchers - but maybe he's even more advanced than I expect.
Pedro, anyone?
Yeah, my numbers were rotation estimates without any regard for bullpen innings. I'd view the numbers as rough estimates.
ReplyDeleteI realized after the fact that my Liz comment was based on my misunderstanding the question. Sorry about that.
ReplyDeleteStill, you don't see Eaton on the team April 6th?
Eaton makes the team somehow...
ReplyDeleteGuthrie 180
Uehara 150
Beyond that a revolving door of Hill, Eaton, Pauley, Hendrickson, Waters and Baez with cameos by Penn, Bass and Bergeson at some point during the season. Just a hunch but I think Penn remains with the teams on some capacity.
It could get ugly... no one is stepping up in Spring Training.
180 is a safer estimate. I just have a sneaky feeling that Trembley might feel under the pressure this year if the starting rotation falls apart like I think it will. Guthrie is the only one who has much of a track record and Trembley might ask him to pitch a bit deeper than he has. Of course, I think Guthrie is one of those guys who seems primed to get injured in the next year or two. Last year, he really upped his use of breaking balls while experiencing a significant decrease in k rate. This just screams to me that although his ERA looked fine that he struggled a bit and resorted to using his breaking ball more than he should. It might mean nothing, but if he continues to rely upon that pitch . . . I think he might start to experience some issues with his arm/shoulder. Maybe it explains the "dead arm" he was experiencing at the end of last year.
ReplyDeleteSo, yeah, my estimate of 200IP is probably off. I could see anywhere between 120-210.
According to FanGraphs, Guthrie actually decreased his use of breaking-balls last year, as well as fastballs, and threw more change-ups. Velocity stayed about the same too. I'm not disagreeing that he's an injury risk though. Didn't he get a "dead arm" the previous year too? Maybe he's just not built to go 200-220 IP, like a Halladay or a Sabathia. If it's closer to 120 than 210, then things are going to get really interesting.
ReplyDeleteHuh . . . I wonder where I got the impression he was using his breaking ball more.
ReplyDelete"It could get ugly..."
ReplyDeleteYes, but not necessarily all season. The setbacks to Hill and Uehara make things look especially bleak, but the outlook should be more stable when they return. I could see them both providing 150-170 reasonably effective innings this season.
Hill's injury obscures what seems to be very good news. A couple of months ago, there was some concern that he might be afflicted with a with a case of the Ankiel yips, so mentally obstructed that he couldn't perform. That seems not to be the case. His problems last year appear to have been rooted in nagging injury. If so, there's reason to believe that when healthy he will be a very effective pitcher, as he was in 2007.
Of course that leaves health as a concern, but I prefer to be optimistic, and I think there's a reasonable chance of Guthrie, Uehara, and Hill being a competent front three in the rotation for most of the season.
The rest... I see the options situation basically determining the staff in the early season. Penn and Eaton will probably be in the rotation. (The injuries have helped to relieve the squeeze on Penn, who might otherwise be waiver material). Pauley has really not been very good, and they'll try to waive him through at the last moment, and will probably succeed. They'll have to make room for Hennessey when he returns, and that's when Penn could be in trouble if he hasn't showed something.
Beyond that, the Norfolk shuttle will be in full gear. The audition process we're seeing now will continue into the season, with the hot hand of the moment at AAA being next in line to replace whoever has stumbled in Baltimore. It'll be like the Oscar Madison method of sorting laundry in "The Odd Couple": throw your dirty socks against the wall-- anything that doesn't stick is clean enough to wear another day.
Oh, and I do see Bergesen getting 80-100 IP with the O's.