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I'm stealing this idea from Beyond the Boxscore but I don't think they are in any hurry to do this exercise with the Orioles so I'll do it here.
It's all about optimizing lineups, getting the most bang for your buck out of the players that you have. I think batting order is very overrated when it comes to run production (I think Sky at BtB has said the same thing) but it is interesting to see how unorthodox a lineup can look and, theoretically, score more runs per game.
Like BtB, I'll be using the standards found in The Book: Playing The Percentages in Baseball as well as David Pinto's lineup tool found at Baseball Musings.
Here are the main players for the Oriole lineup and their CHONE projections for OBA and SLG for 2009:
OBA SLG
B. Roberts .359 .423
M. Mora .328 .414
N. Markakis .376 .474
A. Huff .354 .466
L. Scott .352 .462
A. Jones .337 .444
G. Zaun .313 .355
F. Pie .320 .407
C. Izturis .287 .326
Using the rules, the first step is to identify the top three hitters on the team. For the Orioles, that projects to be Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. These guys will take up the top three spots in the lineup.
For leadoff, OBP is king. You also want the batter with the least power among those three elite hitters on the team. Speed is icing on the cake. Hello, Brian Roberts.
In the two hole, it's the best hitter between Huff and Markakis. This hitter comes to bat in more big situations than any other hitter in the lineup. #2 belongs to Nick.
Cleanup should be one of the best hitters on the team and the guy with power. This would be Huff. You could quibble that Markakis may have more raw power next season and you could swap the two without much argument from me. But Huff is #4 for now.
The next two best hitters on the team are Adam Jones and Luke Scott. More value is gained in the 5 slot with a batter who hits singles, doubles and triples rather than living and dying with the home run. Scott doesn't live and die with the homer but Jones is probably a more well-rounded hitter is this regard. Scott goes to #3 and Jones is #5.
Melvin Mora, Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and Cesar Izturis are left. From here, the order goes from best hitter to worst with a caveat that if you have someone who can steal bases, they add some value in the 6 hole. Only Izturis is a fair stolen base threat at this point in his career but the bat is so bad that I don't think he will leverage that skill too often. Mora is the best of what's left, followed by Pie, Zaun and Izturis.
Your "optimized" 2009 Orioles lineup:
1 Roberts
2 Markakis
3 Scott
4 Huff
5 Jones
6 Mora
7 Pie
8 Zaun
9 Izturis
Plugging this information into the Lineup Optimization Tool, this lineup is estimated to score 4.885 runs per game. If you swap Huff and Markakis, the total is 4.879 so I was barely correct with Markakis in the 2 hole.
Pinto's best lineup? It scores 4.898 runs per game.
1 Roberts
2 Markakis
3 Jones
4 Huff
5 Scott
6 Pie
7 Zaun
8 Mora
9 Izturis
Mora and Pie, as well as Scott and Huff are interchangeable with the same production.
One wrinkle: what if we add Matt Wieters? Wieters' CHONE: .349 OBA and .439 SLG.
Wieters would fit in at the 5 slot and bump everybody down:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Scott
4. Huff
5. Wieters
6. Jones
7. Mora
8. Pie
9. Izturis
Just the addition of Wieters...brings the runs per game up to 5.031
Pinto adds this lineup for a runs per game of 5.041 moves Wieters to number three.
How about the run production for a "traditional" lineup?
1. Roberts
2. Mora
3. Markakis
4. Huff
5. Scott
6. Zaun
7. Jones
8. Pie
9. Izturis
This configuration gives you a runs per game of 4.857.
Swap Wieters in for Zaun in the 6 spot? That gets you 4.999 runs per game.
Difference in runs per game using The Book rules vs. the traditional approach: .028
The Book vs Pinto? Pinto wins by .013
The Book vs The Book with Wieters? Wieters improves the rate by .146 runs per game.
Traditional vs. Traditional with Wieters? Wieters adds .142 runs per game.
Conclusion? I would love to see a team try one of these non-traditional lineups sometime but as you can see, it matters little. I suppose it might let you win a game or two over the course of a season which could be a facotr in a close race
But adding a better catcher? It improves jumps by at least a factor of 5.
So improving the actual members of the lineup means far more than the shuffling of said lineup. Go figure...
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One thing that might help when look at these differences is understanding what they might mean over the course of a season. The Book vs the Traditional Approach results in an improvement of 4.5 runs over the course of a season or almost half a game. Book with or without Wieters? 23.6 runs or about a shade over 2 games.
ReplyDeleteWhat I think this says is that lineup optimization as far as we are measuring it here does not really matter. Having good players in the lineup certainly does though.
One thing I wonder is over at BP they are starting to issue numbers on base running competency, such as advancing on hit balls and stealing efficiency. This in turn is translated into runs above or below average. I wonder if it would be possible to jury-rigged this analysis into the lineup configuration. I still doubt we would see much difference, but it is possible. I wonder how stealing efficiency or base advancement is weighted by position. Hmmmm. Someone who actually knows how to use Access could do this.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention...
ReplyDeleteThis doesn't allow for platooning players, especially left/right splits. Properly platooned players would probably have a greater effect than the lineup order as well but too often the manager won't sit the starter that has trouble hitting nasty LHPs. Of course, when you carry 13 pitchers, platooning/substitutions are difficult anyway. But that's another story...
I believe that Tango has said that, other than doing something stupid like batting Izturis lead-off, one of the best things you can do is split up lefties and righties to lessen the effects of OOGYs out of the pen.
ReplyDeleteI also recall Pinto saying that the O's have one of the most optimal manager constructed line-ups given their personnel. I'm hoping they get over this "Jones in the two-hole" idea and just let Nick get on base for the heart of the line-up all year.
As for platooning, since the only real good option to hit lefties will likely be Wigginton, having him in with Scott going to left and Pie sitting seems like something the team is quite open to.
With the line-up optimization tool, Pinto also used a formula to correct for injuries and different line-ups and the like. I assume you didn't apply this to the runs/game numbers above (it would lower them a bit).
I know it's stacking the deck, but I like the idea of having tons of speed bunched together.
ReplyDeleteTrembley has already said he'll bat Jones in the 2 spot to start the year. What do you think about this for a speedy bottom to top of the order?
8. Pie/Freel
9. Izturis
1. Roberts
2. Jones
3. Markakis
That's a lot of speed!
Speed != base-running or base-stealing ability
ReplyDeleteI believe Kevin Youkilis was one of the best baserunners in baseball last year, despite his poor footspeed.
I hear ya. But all of those guys can steal bases. Pie has gotten CS a lot, but still, he (and Markakis and Jones) can work on that, right?
ReplyDeleteSure they can work on it, but (no snark intended) Jones can work on getting on base but that doesn't mean he should hit second right now. It's always good to optimize everything you can, but the marginal benefit is small enough that I'll only get in a huff about this stuff if it results in in-game damage that I can see. Like during the WBC USA-Ven. game where at the beginning I noted that Rollins should be at short instead of Jeter. Then Ven. scored runs because of Jeter's lack of range + an error (I believe). Otherwise I'd just say "Markakis should be hitting second instead of Jones," and let it go.
ReplyDeleteTrue, Jeter's defense is glaringly weak. The way he dives all over the place is confounding.
ReplyDeleteI was surprised to hear Trembley say Jones rather than Mora was starting the year in the 2 spot, given Mora's 2008 and Jones' K ratio.
But all signs point to this season being little more than a six month scouting report. I guess they're just hoping Jones develops some patience. I don't defend everything Trembley does, but I like the idea of having 5 fast players in a row.