All thoughts and comments about Opening Day . . . let the conversation whirl at its own pace.
Using ZIPS and the run projector tool, pitching adjusted score:
Orioles 3.557
Yankees 4.975
Lineups behind the jump.
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Runs/G for Lineup: 5.082
Adjusted for CC: 3.557
Brian Roberts - 2B
Adam Jones - CF
Nick Markakis - RF
Melvin Mora - 3B
Aubrey Huff - 1B
Ty Wigginton - DH
Luke Scott - LF
Gregg Zaun - C
Cesar Izturis - SS
Jeremy Guthrie - P
vs
Runs/G for Lineup: 5.408
Adjusted for Guthrie: 4.975
Derek Jeter - SS
Johnny Damon - LF
Mark Teixeira -1B
Hideki Matsui - DH
Jorge Posada - C
Robinson Cano - 2B
Xavier Nady - RF
Cody Ransom - 3B
Brett Gardner - CF
CC Sabathia - P
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I'm thinking 7-6 O's win. Glad to see Luke Scott in there to play LF - that's the move that makes the most sense.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it is still an uphill climb against that team. Also, whoever had Cody Ransom in their pool deserves their five dollars.
ReplyDeleteOne interesting thing is how Mora is slotted in at the 4 spot even though he is not that great of a hitter. I guess they are worried enough about the late inning matchups that they want to prevent the Yanks from running in LOOGYs with an off day tomorrow.
Something tells me though that Sabathia will not have a good season this year. Now, he does not throw many offspeed pitches, but he does eat up a ton of innings. He should be fine today, but at some point . . . I just expect the wheels to come off. These last three years though . . . he has been great.
The worst thing for the O's is if he has three great years and then opts out of his contract with the Yankees before going to another team and breaking down.
ReplyDeleteThat is odd about Mora - if they wanted a righty why not Wigginton?
It is nice having three switch-hitter though.
Well, Wigginton really is not all that good, but Trembley is also known to worship at the House of the Proven Veteran.
ReplyDeleteIn all fairness, none of the righthanded hitters is that good.
ReplyDeleteWalking Wiggie to get to Scott does not make much sense to me. Scott does not hit grounders.
ReplyDeleteFirst place, if only for a day.
ReplyDeleteI had trouble getting a good look at Sabathia's throws from my perch in the Upper Deck.
ReplyDeleteHe looked slow from there, though. And how bad is that pickoff move?
And how did this blog make it into The Sun's piece but not mine?
Well, good to see BORT getting some recognition.
Jay
His speed was fine working around 93-95 mph, but it seems like he was falling off a little bit. His placement was pretty poor. You have to get at least 60% of your FBs for strikes.
ReplyDeleteESPN was reporting that Sabathia was throwing at 90 MPH, but I'll trust you over ESPN.
ReplyDeleteAnd I mean that. I think they make most of their stuff up.
It is weird how poor many of their analysts are. Pitch F/X, which is pretty accurate, was pegging him for an average of 93 and topping out with 95 on his fastball.
ReplyDeleteOoops, that is actually me (Jon), signed into the CD account.
ReplyDeleteWatching it on TV, Sabathia had velocity but just couldn't throw strikes with any consistency. It was the kind of game where if he was facing the Mariners from last year he may only have given up 2-3 runs, but the O's were patient and rarely helped CC out. The angle on the news was almost exclusively that the Yankees lost (and CC and Tex had poor games) and not that the Orioles won (and showed some talent).
ReplyDeleteGood point. The pre-game notes posted on ESPN were pretty much exclusively about the Yankees. I'm not surprised that the post-game was the same. That's just the way they are.
ReplyDeleteAs for their claim that Sabathia's velocity was down, I wouldn't be surprised if they based it on just a handful of pitches and ran with it as "an angle." They have so much air time, they basically have to construct story lines on their own to fill it.
So, if Sabathia's velocity is down, that gives them something to discuss on Around the Horn, PTI, First Take, Jim Rome, and the 9 hours of Sports Center they run every day.
Conspiracy theory? Maybe a little. But it has more than a kernel of truthiness to it.