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Offense:
Matt Wieters:
300 PA, .289/.359/.482, 10 HR, .365 wOBA
Gregg Zaun:
300 PA, .241/.340/.374, 5 HR, .320 wOBA
Aubrey Huff:
600 PA, .280/.344/.472, 22 HR, .357 wOBA
Brian Roberts:
625 PA, .285/.365/.425, 9 HR, .358 wOBA
Cesar Izturis:
550 PA, .260/.311/.327, 3 HR, .290 wOBA
Melvin Mora:
550 PA, .271/.333/.418, 16 HR, .334 wOBA
Felix Pie:
500 PA, .267/.322/.409, 10 HR, .323 wOBA
Adam Jones:
575 PA, .273/.325/.425, 15 HR, .331 wOBA
Nick Markakis:
650 PA, .301/.401/.493, 20 HR, .395 wOBA
Luke Scott:
575 PA, .262/.343/.476, 23 HR, .355 wOBA
Ty Wigginton:
475 PA, .271/.334/.469, 20 HR, .350 wOBA
Chad Moeller:
75 PA, .229/.281/.344, 1 HR, .286 wOBA
Ryan Freel:
300 PA, .254/.327/.353, 3 HR, .321 wOBA
Robert Andino:
100 PA, .235/.281/.342, 1 HR, .292 wOBA
Luis Montanez:
75 PA, .274/.326/.432, 2 HR, .333 wOBA
Total offense: .272/.342/.429, 160 HR, .338 wOBA
In 2008, the O's hit .269/.333/.429, 172 HR, .340 wOBA so things don't look all that different. Huff and Mora probably won't repeat their '08 seasons, but the additions of Wigginton and Wieters help. A bit above average again, while putting a plus defense on the field (especially in the outfield).
Starting pitching:
| Pitcher | IP | ERA |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 180 | 4.15 |
| Koji Uehara | 150 | 4.70 |
| Rich Hill | 100 | 5.00 |
| Matt Hendrickson | 80 | 5.13 |
| Adam Eaton | 70 | 5.30 |
| Alfredo Simon | 70 | 5.43 |
| Brad Bergesen | 75 | 5.18 |
| Chris Waters | 65 | 5.51 |
| David Pauley | 55 | 5.40 |
| Danys Baez | 35 | 5.47 |
| Matt Albers | 30 | 4.74 |
| Radhames Liz | 25 | 5.52 |
| Total | 935 | 4.95 |
Relief pitching:
| Pitcher | IP | ERA |
| George Sherrill | 55 | 3.79 |
| Jim Johnson | 60 | 3.85 |
| Chris Ray | 50 | 4.10 |
| Dennis Sarfate | 55 | 4.37 |
| Jamie Walker | 35 | 4.72 |
| Danys Baez | 40 | 4.70 |
| Kam Mickolio | 35 | 4.24 |
| Brian Bass | 45 | 4.58 |
| Brad Hennessey | 40 | 4.52 |
| Matt Albers | 35 | 4.38 |
| Matt Hendrickson | 25 | 4.32 |
| Radhames Liz | 35 | 4.73 |
| Total | 510 | 4.31 |
Pitching total: 4.73 ERA
Last year it was 5.15 so that's a big improvement. It's not really "better" though, as it's really hard to pitch that poorly (5.14 FIP too) two years in a row. Only two guys in the rotation with ERA's under 5 (Guthrie and Uehara) would make games hard to watch most days, so hopefully they can stay healthy all year. And there's a decent chance that someone (anyone, please) actually lucks into a pretty good season. Alternately, it's likely that one or two guys put up an ERA above 6. The idea is that those guys get replaced quickly (if the ERA is deserved) by someone who is less bad.
Overall, that team has about 78 wins worth of talent based on Wins Above Replacement. Given that they play in the AL East I would personally be inclined to knock another win or two off of that number, but a 75-77 win season is what I'm looking at. And no September collapse would be nice.
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Perhaps my judgement is clouded by despair but I just can't see this pitching staff doing well enough to win even 70 games this year. Hendrickson, Simon and Eaton put my stomach in knots.
ReplyDeleteI'll be thrilled if these guys manager to win 75 in '09.
It took a lot for me to fight through my pessimism about the rotation and accept that the data (from the past used to project in to the future) makes >70 wins fairly likely (not adjusting for luck, of course). The defense and offense are both above average, so even an ERA a half-run worse than I have (5.25) would still result in a 71-ish win total using WAR (assuming the position player projections are generally right).
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