Orioles Line-Up With Platoon Splits

With the roster projections more or less done, I thought I'd update the line-up post I did previously with platoon splits. This uses each player's career numbers and then regresses (with righties expected to have a slightly smaller split than lefties).

Player	Projected wOBA
	Overall	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
Matt Wieters	.324	.311	.330
Derrek Lee	.340	.358	.335
Brian Roberts	.335	.319	.342
Mark Reynolds	.342	.361	.335
JJ Hardy	.318	.337	.311
Luke Scott	.355	.332	.362
Adam Jones	.337	.343	.334
Nick Markakis	.361	.342	.370
Vlad Guerrero	.346	.363	.340

I don't have it weighted by plate appearances, but the overall marks for the team seem pretty even versus righties or lefties (~.340 for both).

Wieters and Roberts - despite being switch-hitters - have been more like lefties in their careers. Because of that, it's entirely possible that batting Roberts lead-off against south-paws isn't the right move, though the last couple years he has been better versus them than against righties. Adam Jones has a fairly large reverse split for his career (.300 wOBA vs. LHP, .338 wOBA vs. RHP), but regressing makes it go the other way slightly.

Assuming Roberts is locked into the one spot (and if Brian can't go, I agree with Heath that Cesar Izturis shouldn't be batting above 8th ever, if even that high), the line-ups could shake out like this:

Against right-handed pitchers:

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Vlad Guerrero
Luke Scott
Derrek Lee
Adam Jones
Mark Reynolds
Matt Wieters
JJ Hardy

Guerrero, Lee, Jones, and Reynolds are all more or less interchangeable (and Wieters isn't that far off). Batting Reynolds third to leverage his home runs might be a plus, but I can't see Buck not having Vlad somewhere in the middle there. Roberts-Markakis-blank-Scott definitely looks like the correct alignment versus righties. Actually, putting Felix Pie in left-field (.319 wOBA overall, .325 versus righties) and moving Luke Scott to DH might not be a bad idea, as the difference in batting between Felix and Vlad versus right-handed pitchers is only ~8 runs over 600 PA, while the difference in defense between Pie and Scott in left is close to that.

Against left-handed pitchers:

Brian Roberts
Derrek Lee
Mark Reynolds
Vlad Guerrero
Nick Markakis
Adam Jones
JJ Hardy
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters

Though switching Markakis and Lee wouldn't be too awful, and would keep the top of the line-up more "normal" looking, it isn't necessarily optimal (despite many people think Nick handles lefties exceptionally well, his regressed platoon split is only a little better than average). Relievers show up in most games though, so not making huge changes is possibly for the best. And I can't see Hardy being above Scott in the line-up regardless, but with the difference between the two being small I assume Luke would be a spot or two higher.

The Orioles' Outfield Defense...The Best In Baseball?

This week, I'll pick up the banner for defense...

The Baltimore Orioles will possibly field one of the best outfield defenses in baseball in 2009. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already have good track records as superior defenders and Felix Pie, a centerfielder in Chicago, should be a superior fielder in left. On a team that is likely to lose more than is wins for the 12th straight season, watching those three run down flies and gun down runners at the plate should be one of the bright spots of 2009.

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How good will they be? I figured I'd look at some of the best defensive trios of the last few years and see where they stack up. I used UZR/150 ratings from FanGraphs.com so I oculd only look at the last 8 seasons. I had two requirements for selecting the trios; 1) Each fielder has to play at least 800 innings in the field and 2) Each fielder had to have a positive UZR/150. I didn't want to have outfields composed of two superior fielders and one plodding slugger. Not the aim of this post.

I included the top 6, for reasons that will become obvious...


6. 2008 Baltimore Orioles

               UZR/150
N. Markakis      9.3
A. Jones        12.2
L. Scott         6.6
Total           28.1

That's right, even with the much-maligned glove of Luke Scott in left, the 2008 version of the Orioles outfiled is one of the top 6 in baseball in the last few years. Scott may not look pretty in left but he gets the job done. Markakis adds a superior arm and Jones' arm is well above average too.

5. 2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

               UZR/150
C. Crawford     22.1
J. Cruz, Jr.     6.9
R. Baldelli      3.6
Total           32.6

Most of this score is provided by Crawford and his amazing range but Cruz was no slouch in center and Baldelli's arm provided good value in right.

4. 2006 Atlanta Braves

               UZR/150
R. Langerhans   15.4
And. Jones      14.6
J. Francouer     5.8
Total           35.8

All very well-rounded fielders but only Francouer displaied a plus arm. All are now clinging to the major leaque carrers nearly three years later. I saw this outfield in person several times that season and they were pretty impressive and a lot of fun to watch.

3. 2003 Philadelphia Phillies

           UZR/150
P. Burrell   6.5
M. Byrd     13.5
B. Abreu    16.1
Total       36.1

Yes, only five years ago, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu were plus defenders. Burrell was not too rangy but did not embarrass himself. Byrd and Abreu were both good all-around fielders.

2. 2006 Toronto Blue Jays

             UZR/150
R. Johnson    23.9
A. Rios       12.8
V. Wells       7.2
Total         43.9

Thus trio was the only one to appear multiple times, each posting above-average UZR/150's from 2004-2006. The best defensive outfield of the new century so far.

1. 2004 Chicago Cubs

              UZR/150
C. Patterson   33.8
S. Sosa        11.1
M. Alou         4.6
Total          49.5

A young, rangy Corey Patterson, Sammy Sosa in his prime and an aging Moises Alou made for an unlikely candidate for the top of this list. But here they are, buoyed by Patterson's amazing range in center and the surprising range of Sosa and Alou.

Can this year's trio of Markakis, Pie and Jones rank among the great outfields of this decade? A lot will depend on Pie's learning curve in left and Jones' health in center. If Pie masters left and Jones stays healthy, they could certainly do so.

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