The Crystal Ball 2011: Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman

With the signing of Justin Duchscherer, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta became linked for Spring Training 2011. With his addition Tillman and Arrieta are the most likely candidates to be sent down to Norfolk. (Although with this news, maybe not so much.)

Jeremy Guthrie, Duchscherer (if healthy) and Brian Matusz are locks for the rotation. Bergesen is probably staying...he's not great but fairly reliable. So Tillman and Arrieta are dueling for one spot.

Some point to Arrieta's September as proof that he has turned a corner and should be the front runner for the final spot in the rotation. But while the numbers are great (2-1, 2.60 ERA, 13 K, 2 BB) but it was only over 17 innings. But over the course of the season, he walked nearly as many as he struck out. Not a good recipe for a young pitcher to make a leap forward.

Speaking of the numbers...

              IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   FIP   WHIP
Arrieta     100.1  52   48    9  4.66  4.76  1.535
Tillman      53.2  31   31    9  5.87  5.89  1.528

Yeah...still doesn't look great for Tillman here.

But it seems to me that Tillman got more "swings and misses" with his stuff last season. So let's compare with the data from Fangraphs. O-Swing is swings outside the strike zone, Z-Swing is swings in the strike zone. Swing is total swing percentage, F-Strike is first pitch strikes and SWStr is swinging strikes.

           O-Swing%  Z-Swing%  Swing%  F-Strike%  SwStr%
Tillman     25.2%      66.0%   43.2%     50.0%     6.3%
Arrieta     29.0%      61.6%   43.6%     54.1%     5.7%

I thought Tillman would have had a bit more of an advantage here but they are pretty much even. Which is disappointing. I would have expected a bit more swinging strikes from Tillman's stuff than Arrieta's but up to this point, they are in a dead heat.

If I had to choose, I still like Tillman's upside better than Arrieta's but they are very similar at this point. This spring, I'd watch the strikeouts and walks for both of these guys very carefully. Homers will happen in Florida, ERAs and Wins will fluctuate with the defense but the walks and strikeouts will be the best bellwether for their competition in Sarasota. And it starts tomorrow when Tillman takes the mound against the Phillies.

For more general ramblings about the Baltimore Orioles, go check out Dempsey's Army...

Chris Tillman Start (5/1/2009 at Scranton)

Taking a look at Tillman against AAA Yankees. Observations on positional prospects will be written up separately. Pitch charting follows...

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Yankees Lineup:
Nunez, SS
Rodriguez, DH
Linden, LF
S. Duncan, RF
Miranda, 1B
Jackson, CF
E. Duncan, 3B
Malec, 2B
Plittere, C

First Inning
Nunez, SS
P1 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, low-in, foul tip (caught)

Rodriguez, DH
P1 - FB, out, ball (good run)
P2 - FB, low-in, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P5 - FB, up-in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-out, ball

Linden, LF
P1 - FB, low-in, ball (good pick by Wieters)
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, low-out, 4-6

S. Duncan
P1 - FB, up-in, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, up-in, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, up-out, 2B (CF)

Miranda
P1 - CB, up-out, ball
P2 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; nice depth on pitch and solid arm speed)
P3 - FB, up-in, ball
P4 - CH, out, F8

Inning Summary: Tillman worked to establish his fastball, struggling a bit with command. He was around his spots but not necessarily hitting them. One thing that was nice was his use of secondary stuff against Miranda, setting-up his second change-up with a solid high fastball. Stadium gun has him in the 90-92 range with his fastball.

20 pitches/13 strikes, 1BB, 1 SO, 1 H, 1 ER

Second Inning
Jackson
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, out, ball (very good depth)
P3 - FB, low, foul (RF)
P4 - FB, in, foul (1B)
P5 - FB, low-in, F9

E. Duncan
P1 - CB, out, ball (good shape/depth, again)
P2 - FB, low, foul (back)
P3 - CB, low, strike (looking; plus depth and bite)
P4 - CH, in, foul (back)
P5 - FB, low-out, foul (3B)
P6 - FB, out, foul (back)
P7 - CB, in, foul (1B)
P8 - CH, low-in, strike (swinging; good depth and arm speed)

Malec
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - FB, in, ball
P3 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P4 - FB, out, ball (good waste and change where Malec's looking)
P5 - FB, low-in, foul (back)
P6 - CB, up-in, ball
P7 - FB, low-in, L4 (Malec squared-up but right at 4)

Inning Summary: Much better mix of secondary stuff. Tillman is snapping off a plus CB bordering on plus-plus, getting very good depth and hard bite. A couple were a little soft (shape wasn't as tight) but overall the pitch looks good. His changeup has some nice depth and looks like it could definitely be an average to above-average pitch if he keeps working. I hope to see him pitch off his curve a bit the second time through the order.

Inning: 20 pitches/15 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 40 pitches/28 strikes, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1 H, 1 ER

Third Inning
Pilittere
P1 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P2 - CB, up, 1B (CF)

Nunez
P1 - FB, middle, foul (RF)
P2 - FB, low-in, F3 (foul)

Rodriguez
P1 - CB, low-out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, ball
P3 - FB, low-out, 4-6

Linden
P1 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P2 - FB, out, foul (LF)
P3 - FB, low-out, ball
P4 - FB, out, foul (LF; seems like a good spot for offspeed)
P5 - CB, out, strike (looking)

Inning Summary: Tillman looked pretty comfortable and had his most economical inning. I'd like to see the change-up more, if only because it's supposedly something he's to be working on and has looked pretty good the handful of times he's used it tonight. Overall, solid inning and much needed to keep the pitch count down a bit.

Inning: 12 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 1 SO, 1 H, O ER
Total: 52 pitches/37 strikes, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2 H, 1 ER

Fourth Inning
S. Duncan
P1 - FB, low, ball (bounced in -- hey, it's been a long wait)
P2 - FB, out, ball
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, out, strike
P5 - FB, in, foul (back)
P6 - FB, low-in, ball

Mendoza (PH for Miranda)
P1 - FB, out, ball
[Wieters/Tillman conference]
P2 - FB, out, strike (looking)
P3 - FB, out, strike (looking; framed)
P4 - CB, low, strike (looking; snapped a good one)

Jackson
P1 - CB, low-out, ball (softer shape, came around it a bit)
P2 - FB, in, foul (back)
P3 - FB, low-out, strike (looking)
P4 - FB, low-out, ball
P5 - FB, in, 1B (RF; not a bad pitch but Jackson stayed inside of it)

E. Duncan
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging)
P3 - FB, out, ball
P4 - FB, low, F7 (nice tracking by Reimold, back and to the line)

Malec
P1 - FB, up, ball (good to see him elevate it to start the AB)
P2 - FB, out, 2B (LF; belt-high and over the outer-half; missed inside target)

[Mike Griffin to mound w/Wieters and Tillman]

Pilittere
P1 - FB, up-in, F7

Inning Summary: I know this is about Tillman, but Wieters is really a solid receiver. He's quiet behind the plate and really absorbs the ball well -- the third pitch to Mendoza looked about three inches out, but Wieters took it in with minimal movement in framing and no movement at all in his body. Back to Tillman, it's hard to judge to harshly after the long layover in the top half of the inning, but he didn't look sharp. He wasn't hitting his spots and ended up around the belt way too often. Still would like to see him pitch off the curve a little more to change the hitter's eye-level, and of course the change-up would be nice.

Inning: 21 pitches/11 strikes, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2 H, 2 ER
Total: 73 pitches, 48 strikez, 2 BB, 4 SO, 4 H, 3 ER

Fifth Inning
Nunez
P1 - FB, out, ball
P2 - FB, low, strike (looking)
P3 - CB, up-in, strike (looking; great bite)
P4 - FB, out, 4-3

Rodriguez
P1 - CB, out, ball
P2 - FB, out, strike (swinging; way late, good job pitching off CB!)
P3 - CB, low, strike (swinging)
P4 - CH, low, strike (swinging; excellent pitch sequence had Rodriguez looking FB on P4)

Linden
P1 - CB, low-out, strike (looking; is he reading this? Again, way to pitch off the CB!)
P2 - FB, low-out, strike (swinging; again way behind after CB set-up)
P3 - CB, low-in, strike (swinging)

Inning Summary: Outstanding inning. Great job pitching off the secondary stuff and keeping the hitters guessing after being forced to the FB the previous inning. Should earn another trip to the mound in the sixth -- it'd be nice to see him get through six after laboring a bit with his pitch count early.

Inning: 11 pitches/9 strikes, O BB, 2 SO, O H, O ER
Total: 84 pitches/57 strikes, 2 BB, 6 SO, 4 H, 3 ER

Tillman pulled; Albers in

Game Summary: Tillman put together a nice little start after showing some inconsistent command early. His last inning was by far his best, and it would have been nice to see him out for one more (particularly to face Duncan and Jackson again). It's clear what Tillman needs to continue to work on -- command in the zone, curveball command and using his changeup. He'll also need to build up some more in-game endurance, though some of that will come as he continues to fill out and build his overall durability. His curveball flashed plus-plus today, though it generally sat around plus, with average command. His change-up was a very good pitch the few times he threw it. Hopefully he'll continue to integrate it into his arsenal. Another nice start; still not Major League ready, but he's clearly working his way there.

Final Line : 5 IP, 2 BB, 4 H, 6 SO, 3 ER, 84 pitches/57 strikes

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