From Roch Kubatko's blog:
Trembley noted that Zaun has hit "in some tough luck."
"I think for a guy who has played as long as Zaun has, you've got to look at the track record and see what he is, and that's basically a .250 hitter, and I think that's what he would be," Trembley said.
Is Dave Trembley correct in his assessment of Gregg Zaun this season?
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A quick way to find out is PrOPS.
Zaun's Actual Line: .111/.238/.185
Zaun's PrOPS Line: .241/.347/.303
It does appear that Zaun has been unlucky early this season. And if you take his expected line through PrOPS, he is much closer to the .250 hitter that Dave Trembley is expecting.
So should Chad Moeller get more playing time at this point?
Moeller's Actual Line: .250/.318/.450
Moeller's PrOPS Line: .316/.373/.538
Probably. Based on Moeller's hot bat and Zaun's cold one it probably wouldn't hurt things to split the time equally at least.
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Showing posts with label Heath Bintliff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Heath Bintliff. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
A Quick Excercise In Lineup Optimization...
A quick look at lineup optimization and how it could be used on the projected 2009 Oriole lineup.
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I'm stealing this idea from Beyond the Boxscore but I don't think they are in any hurry to do this exercise with the Orioles so I'll do it here.
It's all about optimizing lineups, getting the most bang for your buck out of the players that you have. I think batting order is very overrated when it comes to run production (I think Sky at BtB has said the same thing) but it is interesting to see how unorthodox a lineup can look and, theoretically, score more runs per game.
Like BtB, I'll be using the standards found in The Book: Playing The Percentages in Baseball as well as David Pinto's lineup tool found at Baseball Musings.
Here are the main players for the Oriole lineup and their CHONE projections for OBA and SLG for 2009:
Using the rules, the first step is to identify the top three hitters on the team. For the Orioles, that projects to be Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. These guys will take up the top three spots in the lineup.
For leadoff, OBP is king. You also want the batter with the least power among those three elite hitters on the team. Speed is icing on the cake. Hello, Brian Roberts.
In the two hole, it's the best hitter between Huff and Markakis. This hitter comes to bat in more big situations than any other hitter in the lineup. #2 belongs to Nick.
Cleanup should be one of the best hitters on the team and the guy with power. This would be Huff. You could quibble that Markakis may have more raw power next season and you could swap the two without much argument from me. But Huff is #4 for now.
The next two best hitters on the team are Adam Jones and Luke Scott. More value is gained in the 5 slot with a batter who hits singles, doubles and triples rather than living and dying with the home run. Scott doesn't live and die with the homer but Jones is probably a more well-rounded hitter is this regard. Scott goes to #3 and Jones is #5.
Melvin Mora, Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and Cesar Izturis are left. From here, the order goes from best hitter to worst with a caveat that if you have someone who can steal bases, they add some value in the 6 hole. Only Izturis is a fair stolen base threat at this point in his career but the bat is so bad that I don't think he will leverage that skill too often. Mora is the best of what's left, followed by Pie, Zaun and Izturis.
Your "optimized" 2009 Orioles lineup:
1 Roberts
2 Markakis
3 Scott
4 Huff
5 Jones
6 Mora
7 Pie
8 Zaun
9 Izturis
Plugging this information into the Lineup Optimization Tool, this lineup is estimated to score 4.885 runs per game. If you swap Huff and Markakis, the total is 4.879 so I was barely correct with Markakis in the 2 hole.
Pinto's best lineup? It scores 4.898 runs per game.
1 Roberts
2 Markakis
3 Jones
4 Huff
5 Scott
6 Pie
7 Zaun
8 Mora
9 Izturis
Mora and Pie, as well as Scott and Huff are interchangeable with the same production.
One wrinkle: what if we add Matt Wieters? Wieters' CHONE: .349 OBA and .439 SLG.
Wieters would fit in at the 5 slot and bump everybody down:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Scott
4. Huff
5. Wieters
6. Jones
7. Mora
8. Pie
9. Izturis
Just the addition of Wieters...brings the runs per game up to 5.031
Pinto adds this lineup for a runs per game of 5.041 moves Wieters to number three.
How about the run production for a "traditional" lineup?
1. Roberts
2. Mora
3. Markakis
4. Huff
5. Scott
6. Zaun
7. Jones
8. Pie
9. Izturis
This configuration gives you a runs per game of 4.857.
Swap Wieters in for Zaun in the 6 spot? That gets you 4.999 runs per game.
Difference in runs per game using The Book rules vs. the traditional approach: .028
The Book vs Pinto? Pinto wins by .013
The Book vs The Book with Wieters? Wieters improves the rate by .146 runs per game.
Traditional vs. Traditional with Wieters? Wieters adds .142 runs per game.
Conclusion? I would love to see a team try one of these non-traditional lineups sometime but as you can see, it matters little. I suppose it might let you win a game or two over the course of a season which could be a facotr in a close race
But adding a better catcher? It improves jumps by at least a factor of 5.
So improving the actual members of the lineup means far more than the shuffling of said lineup. Go figure...
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________________________________________________
I'm stealing this idea from Beyond the Boxscore but I don't think they are in any hurry to do this exercise with the Orioles so I'll do it here.
It's all about optimizing lineups, getting the most bang for your buck out of the players that you have. I think batting order is very overrated when it comes to run production (I think Sky at BtB has said the same thing) but it is interesting to see how unorthodox a lineup can look and, theoretically, score more runs per game.
Like BtB, I'll be using the standards found in The Book: Playing The Percentages in Baseball as well as David Pinto's lineup tool found at Baseball Musings.
Here are the main players for the Oriole lineup and their CHONE projections for OBA and SLG for 2009:
OBA SLG
B. Roberts .359 .423
M. Mora .328 .414
N. Markakis .376 .474
A. Huff .354 .466
L. Scott .352 .462
A. Jones .337 .444
G. Zaun .313 .355
F. Pie .320 .407
C. Izturis .287 .326
Using the rules, the first step is to identify the top three hitters on the team. For the Orioles, that projects to be Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. These guys will take up the top three spots in the lineup.
For leadoff, OBP is king. You also want the batter with the least power among those three elite hitters on the team. Speed is icing on the cake. Hello, Brian Roberts.
In the two hole, it's the best hitter between Huff and Markakis. This hitter comes to bat in more big situations than any other hitter in the lineup. #2 belongs to Nick.
Cleanup should be one of the best hitters on the team and the guy with power. This would be Huff. You could quibble that Markakis may have more raw power next season and you could swap the two without much argument from me. But Huff is #4 for now.
The next two best hitters on the team are Adam Jones and Luke Scott. More value is gained in the 5 slot with a batter who hits singles, doubles and triples rather than living and dying with the home run. Scott doesn't live and die with the homer but Jones is probably a more well-rounded hitter is this regard. Scott goes to #3 and Jones is #5.
Melvin Mora, Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and Cesar Izturis are left. From here, the order goes from best hitter to worst with a caveat that if you have someone who can steal bases, they add some value in the 6 hole. Only Izturis is a fair stolen base threat at this point in his career but the bat is so bad that I don't think he will leverage that skill too often. Mora is the best of what's left, followed by Pie, Zaun and Izturis.
Your "optimized" 2009 Orioles lineup:
1 Roberts
2 Markakis
3 Scott
4 Huff
5 Jones
6 Mora
7 Pie
8 Zaun
9 Izturis
Plugging this information into the Lineup Optimization Tool, this lineup is estimated to score 4.885 runs per game. If you swap Huff and Markakis, the total is 4.879 so I was barely correct with Markakis in the 2 hole.
Pinto's best lineup? It scores 4.898 runs per game.
1 Roberts
2 Markakis
3 Jones
4 Huff
5 Scott
6 Pie
7 Zaun
8 Mora
9 Izturis
Mora and Pie, as well as Scott and Huff are interchangeable with the same production.
One wrinkle: what if we add Matt Wieters? Wieters' CHONE: .349 OBA and .439 SLG.
Wieters would fit in at the 5 slot and bump everybody down:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Scott
4. Huff
5. Wieters
6. Jones
7. Mora
8. Pie
9. Izturis
Just the addition of Wieters...brings the runs per game up to 5.031
Pinto adds this lineup for a runs per game of 5.041 moves Wieters to number three.
How about the run production for a "traditional" lineup?
1. Roberts
2. Mora
3. Markakis
4. Huff
5. Scott
6. Zaun
7. Jones
8. Pie
9. Izturis
This configuration gives you a runs per game of 4.857.
Swap Wieters in for Zaun in the 6 spot? That gets you 4.999 runs per game.
Difference in runs per game using The Book rules vs. the traditional approach: .028
The Book vs Pinto? Pinto wins by .013
The Book vs The Book with Wieters? Wieters improves the rate by .146 runs per game.
Traditional vs. Traditional with Wieters? Wieters adds .142 runs per game.
Conclusion? I would love to see a team try one of these non-traditional lineups sometime but as you can see, it matters little. I suppose it might let you win a game or two over the course of a season which could be a facotr in a close race
But adding a better catcher? It improves jumps by at least a factor of 5.
So improving the actual members of the lineup means far more than the shuffling of said lineup. Go figure...
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Monday, March 16, 2009
The Orioles' Outfield Defense...The Best In Baseball?
This week, I'll pick up the banner for defense...
The Baltimore Orioles will possibly field one of the best outfield defenses in baseball in 2009. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already have good track records as superior defenders and Felix Pie, a centerfielder in Chicago, should be a superior fielder in left. On a team that is likely to lose more than is wins for the 12th straight season, watching those three run down flies and gun down runners at the plate should be one of the bright spots of 2009.
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How good will they be? I figured I'd look at some of the best defensive trios of the last few years and see where they stack up. I used UZR/150 ratings from FanGraphs.com so I oculd only look at the last 8 seasons. I had two requirements for selecting the trios; 1) Each fielder has to play at least 800 innings in the field and 2) Each fielder had to have a positive UZR/150. I didn't want to have outfields composed of two superior fielders and one plodding slugger. Not the aim of this post.
I included the top 6, for reasons that will become obvious...
6. 2008 Baltimore Orioles
That's right, even with the much-maligned glove of Luke Scott in left, the 2008 version of the Orioles outfiled is one of the top 6 in baseball in the last few years. Scott may not look pretty in left but he gets the job done. Markakis adds a superior arm and Jones' arm is well above average too.
5. 2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Most of this score is provided by Crawford and his amazing range but Cruz was no slouch in center and Baldelli's arm provided good value in right.
4. 2006 Atlanta Braves
All very well-rounded fielders but only Francouer displaied a plus arm. All are now clinging to the major leaque carrers nearly three years later. I saw this outfield in person several times that season and they were pretty impressive and a lot of fun to watch.
3. 2003 Philadelphia Phillies
Yes, only five years ago, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu were plus defenders. Burrell was not too rangy but did not embarrass himself. Byrd and Abreu were both good all-around fielders.
2. 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
Thus trio was the only one to appear multiple times, each posting above-average UZR/150's from 2004-2006. The best defensive outfield of the new century so far.
1. 2004 Chicago Cubs
A young, rangy Corey Patterson, Sammy Sosa in his prime and an aging Moises Alou made for an unlikely candidate for the top of this list. But here they are, buoyed by Patterson's amazing range in center and the surprising range of Sosa and Alou.
Can this year's trio of Markakis, Pie and Jones rank among the great outfields of this decade? A lot will depend on Pie's learning curve in left and Jones' health in center. If Pie masters left and Jones stays healthy, they could certainly do so.
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The Baltimore Orioles will possibly field one of the best outfield defenses in baseball in 2009. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already have good track records as superior defenders and Felix Pie, a centerfielder in Chicago, should be a superior fielder in left. On a team that is likely to lose more than is wins for the 12th straight season, watching those three run down flies and gun down runners at the plate should be one of the bright spots of 2009.
________________________________________________
How good will they be? I figured I'd look at some of the best defensive trios of the last few years and see where they stack up. I used UZR/150 ratings from FanGraphs.com so I oculd only look at the last 8 seasons. I had two requirements for selecting the trios; 1) Each fielder has to play at least 800 innings in the field and 2) Each fielder had to have a positive UZR/150. I didn't want to have outfields composed of two superior fielders and one plodding slugger. Not the aim of this post.
I included the top 6, for reasons that will become obvious...
6. 2008 Baltimore Orioles
UZR/150
N. Markakis 9.3
A. Jones 12.2
L. Scott 6.6
Total 28.1
That's right, even with the much-maligned glove of Luke Scott in left, the 2008 version of the Orioles outfiled is one of the top 6 in baseball in the last few years. Scott may not look pretty in left but he gets the job done. Markakis adds a superior arm and Jones' arm is well above average too.
5. 2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
UZR/150
C. Crawford 22.1
J. Cruz, Jr. 6.9
R. Baldelli 3.6
Total 32.6
Most of this score is provided by Crawford and his amazing range but Cruz was no slouch in center and Baldelli's arm provided good value in right.
4. 2006 Atlanta Braves
UZR/150
R. Langerhans 15.4
And. Jones 14.6
J. Francouer 5.8
Total 35.8
All very well-rounded fielders but only Francouer displaied a plus arm. All are now clinging to the major leaque carrers nearly three years later. I saw this outfield in person several times that season and they were pretty impressive and a lot of fun to watch.
3. 2003 Philadelphia Phillies
UZR/150
P. Burrell 6.5
M. Byrd 13.5
B. Abreu 16.1
Total 36.1
Yes, only five years ago, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu were plus defenders. Burrell was not too rangy but did not embarrass himself. Byrd and Abreu were both good all-around fielders.
2. 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
UZR/150
R. Johnson 23.9
A. Rios 12.8
V. Wells 7.2
Total 43.9
Thus trio was the only one to appear multiple times, each posting above-average UZR/150's from 2004-2006. The best defensive outfield of the new century so far.
1. 2004 Chicago Cubs
UZR/150
C. Patterson 33.8
S. Sosa 11.1
M. Alou 4.6
Total 49.5
A young, rangy Corey Patterson, Sammy Sosa in his prime and an aging Moises Alou made for an unlikely candidate for the top of this list. But here they are, buoyed by Patterson's amazing range in center and the surprising range of Sosa and Alou.
Can this year's trio of Markakis, Pie and Jones rank among the great outfields of this decade? A lot will depend on Pie's learning curve in left and Jones' health in center. If Pie masters left and Jones stays healthy, they could certainly do so.
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